World Matchplay betting tips: Back Michael Smith to win quarter number one
We’re backing Michael Smith to top a tricky-looking quarter featuring Nathan Aspinall, Danny Noppert and James Wade at the World Matchplay.
2023-07-14World Matchplay betting tips: Back Michael Smith to win quarter number one
World number one Michael Smith has been drawn alongside Nathan Aspinall, Danny Noppert, James Wade and four others in his quarter of the draw.
They'll be joined by Chris Dobey, Martin Schindler, Krzysztof Ratajski and Steve Beaton with the octet taking to the stage on Sunday's afternoon and evening sessions.
It's not a hard decision to back the world number one when he's in a confident mood. He's averaging 96.18 through his previous 200 legs with a checkout rate of 41.58%.
What makes this section of the draw so interesting is that it has four of the 10 most in-form players on the tour.
James Wade is matching Bully Boy's average but making mince meat of his checkout stats as he's hitting 44.59% of his checkouts.
Elsewhere, Nathan Aspinall is averaging 97.45 and Chris Dobey 96.37, but the pair are falling short of Wade's doubling, hitting 38.82% and 35.27% respectively.
On paper, this is an extremely competitive quarter and it should play out that way. However, we think the exception is Michael Smith who should be able to win it.
Steve Beaton shouldn't pose a major threat at this stage of his career and we know Smith has the beating of anyone who is unranked on his day.
James Wade might be punishing players when he gets the opportunity which is nothing new, but his ton-plus scoring is a long way behind Smith and you have to fashion those chances first.
Aspinall and Noppert may rank as chief threats on paper but it's worth noting the latter has lost seven of 10 meetings against Smith and two quarterfinals so far this year.
It's also worth noting that Smith has regressed since his 2019 final defeat to Rob Cross, making the semifinals, then the quarterfinals, before being dumped out in round two by Dirk van Duijvenbode last year.
He'll surely want to correct that path and last year's disappointment is likely to be on his mind. Mentally, he's in the right place to avenge that. Back Smith to win the quarter.
