World Series betting preview: Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction, picks, odds

It’s the World Series matchup nobody expected.

The Rangers and Diamondbacks combined for 174 wins this season, the lowest combined win total for a World Series matchup in a full season in MLB history. 

The Diamondbacks had the third-longest odds for any World Series team with their 125/1 odds entering the season.

Superstars litter both rosters, from Max Scherzer to Zac Gallen to Corey Seager to Corbin Carroll. 

The Rangers smash the ball, while the Diamondbacks win with speed and defense.

Meanwhile, both pitching staffs have big question marks.

This could shape up as a high-scoring, high-variance series.

Chaos is a ladder. With chaos comes opportunity. Specifically, it should open up betting opportunities across the board.

Series Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+145) | Rangers (-170)

Series Spread: Diamondbacks +1.5 games (-145) | Rangers -1.5 games (+120)

Series Total: Over 50.5 Series Total Runs (-110) | Under 50.5 Series Total Runs (-110)

Diamondbacks vs Rangers World Series prediction

Texas has home-field advantage and will host Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 in Arlington. 

The Rangers are the consensus betting favorite, partially because of home-field advantage but also because they won six more regular-season games and the Diamondbacks are viewed as “lucky to be here.” 

Our Action Network projections say the series price is about fair.

FanDuel has the Rangers as -174 favorites and the Diamondbacks at +146 underdogs, while our projections make the Rangers -152 favorites and Diamondbacks +152 underdogs.

So, there is a small amount of value with the Snakes as ‘dogs, but I’m unsure if I can get there. 

Regarding starting pitching, the D-Backs will roll with some combination of Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. Meanwhile, the Rangers will go with some combination of Nathan Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery and Scherzer. 

Both rotations have pitched well this playoff run. You have to if you want to win the pennant. As far as expected FIP goes, the Rangers have been the better rotation, 3.93 to 4.20, suggesting the Snakes are, in fact, “lucky to be here.” 

However, the Diamondbacks have a monster bullpen advantage.

The Rangers’ 3.72 bullpen ERA looks okay, but their bullpen FIP and expected FIP are in the mid-5.00s. Texas relievers have allowed 21 barrels during this postseason, seven more than the next-highest mark. 

Meanwhile, Arizona’s relief unit has been surprisingly competent, especially in the later innings, as Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel have combined for 17 scoreless relief innings.

Behind those two, the Diamondbacks boast the highest reliever win probability added (+1.79%). The Snakes have pitched well in high-leverage situations, leading to close wins and a World Series appearance. 

These are two elite defensive squads. It provides a huge boost to each pitching staff. 

However, Texas has a monstrous lineup advantage.

The Rangers are at their best when slugging, and they’ve been crushing the ball. Texas boasts the highest wRC+ (124) and wOBA (.353) of any postseason lineup.

Seager, Adolis Garcia, Evan Carter, Mitch Garver and Josh Jung all boast a wRC+ above 135. Seager has the most barrels (nine) of any player during this run. 

I’ll be looking to target Seager in the prop market. Nobody is more locked in right now. 

Across 58 postseason PAs, he has a 53 percent hard-hit rate on 38 batted balls, a 95-mph average exit velocity, a 24-degree average launch angle, and 12 walks to only seven strikeouts. 

One matchup to watch out for is Seager against Ginkel. In three lifetime matchups between the two, Seager is 2-for-3 with a homer and a double.

It’s a small sample size, so we can’t take too much from it, but it’s worth monitoring. 

Arizona is closer to a league-average lineup. The Snakes don’t hit the ball hard.

But once they get on base, they create havoc and find ways to get runners home. Arizona has 16 stolen bases across their 12 playoff games. 

Diamondbacks vs Rangers World Series pick

The Rangers will hit. They are too deep one through nine not to score consistently. They have a postseason-high 71 runs scored across their 12 games. 

They also are brutal in the bullpen, and questions surround Scherzer’s health. 

Meanwhile, the Snakes will force runners home. They’re too dynamic on the basepaths. They’ve also shown some pop in the lineup, smacking 18 homers across the 12 games. 

Meanwhile, I don’t trust their pitchers. 

Gallen is clearly overvalued (3.47 ERA, 4.18 expected ERA) and has pitched mediocre during this playoff run (5.24 ERA across four starts).

Kelly is similarly overvalued (3.29 ERA, 4.13 expected ERA) with a questionable batted-ball profile. 

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Pfaadt was incredible in the NLCS, but his sweeper matched up well with the Phillies. In a more challenging matchup, he could see regression to the mean.

And the mean is not good. Pfaadt had a brutal batted-ball profile this year, constantly getting lit up for hard contact. He finished the year with a 5.72 ERA and a 4.61 expected ERA.

So, I think this will be a high-variance series with plenty of scoring. And the series could go deep.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this as a back-and-forth, six-or-seven-game slugfest.

So, I’m betting Over 50.5 series total runs (-110) at DraftKings. 

In four games between the Snakes and Rangers this season, there were 45 total runs scored.

Three of the four went Over the listed total, and the fourth fell two runs short (seven runs scored with a closing total of nine).

This is shaping up as a highly-entertaining series between two highly-entertaining teams. Wager on that script and bet on plenty of runners reaching home. 

The play: Over 50.5 Series Total Runs (-110) at DraftKings