Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Odds

Tonight, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers will play Game 1 of the 2023 World Series. The Diamondbacks knocked off the Brewers, Dodgers, and Phillies during the first three rounds to punch their ticket to the organization’s first Fall Classic since 2001. The Rangers defeated the Rays, Orioles, and Astros on their side of the bracket, and will be playing in their first World Series since 2011. The first pitch between these two clubs this evening is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on FOX.

Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Rangers as -170 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Zac Gallen gets the ball for Arizona in Game 1

In four starts this postseason, Zac Gallen has been mostly unimpressive – posting a 5.24 ERA, 6.93 FIP, and 1.48 WHIP across 22.1 innings of work. Notably, Gallen has struck out only 13.5% of opposing hitters during these playoffs, which is roughly half of his regular season strikeout rate. His walk rate has also nearly doubled from the regular season to the postseason.

Adding insult to injury, Gallen was at his worst on the road this summer, with a 4.15 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. In three road starts this October, Gallen has allowed 9 earned runs in 16.1 innings, which translates to a 4.96 ERA.

Gallen has struggled in recent weeks, making it difficult to trust him heading into Game 1.

Arizona offense hoping to continue improbable run

Across the final month of the regular season, Arizona’s offense ranked 28th in OPS and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Using a larger sample size, the Diamondbacks ranked 23rd in OPS and 26th in ISO against right-handed pitching following the All-Star break.

During these playoffs, Arizona has continued to struggle at the plate, ranking last in runs scored, extra-base hits, batting average, and OPS of any team to make the League Championship Series. Facing Nathan Eovaldi in the World Series opener, this lineup has another tough test in front of them.

The key to plating runs for this lineup will be to continue their aggression on the basepaths, which was evident during the final two games of the National League Championship Series. If they do that, they have a chance to overcome their shortcomings with the bat in their hands.

Diamondbacks’ bullpen thin on talent

Similar to their counterparts in this World Series, Arizona has a concerning lack of depth in the latter frames. Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel have combined to throw 17 scoreless innings this October, but nearly everyone else has been a major liability for Manager Tony Lovullo. Ryan Thompson has been serviceable with a 2.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but Andrew Saalfrank, Joe Mantiply, and Miguel Castro have been completely untrustworthy in high-leverage moments.

Over the course of a seven-game series, the margin for error in the late innings is extremely small for the Diamondbacks. If they are unable to get length from their starters, it will only exacerbate this issue.

Texas Rangers

Nathan Eovaldi looking to continue postseason success

On Friday night, Nathan Eovaldi will be making his 16th career postseason appearance and his 11th start. In his career, Eovaldi has compiled a 2.87 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 69.0 innings in the playoffs. He has allowed only one earned run in 8.0 innings of work in three World Series appearances.

This October, Texas has won each of the four games Eovaldi has started. Eovaldi has recorded at least 18 outs in each of his four trips to the mound this October, posting a 2.42 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26.9% strikeout rate, and 3.8% walk percentage.

Manager Bruce Bochy is an old-school mind in the Rangers dugout, who figures to give Eovaldi a chance to get deep into this ballgame, similar to what we have seen throughout these playoffs. In a favorable matchup, Eovaldi looks poised for another strong showing.

Corey Seager leads MLB’s best postseason offense

Through the first three rounds of the postseason, the Rangers offense led all playoff teams in OPS, runs scored, and hits. Only the Phillies hit more home runs. Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia have been the two top contributors for this lineup this October, with both players posting a 1.102 OPS or better in 12 games played. Evan Carter, Josh Jung, and Mitch Garver have been quality bats for this group as well, each posting an .898 OPS or better to give Texas a fearsome five in their batting order.

The biggest concern for this lineup on Friday is the long layoff, with four days between the conclusion of the American League Championship Series and tonight’s Game 1. Facing a similar layoff heading into the ALCS, the Rangers scored only two runs and had only six hits in their series opener against the Astros.

Texas bullpen a concern heading into Game 1

It has been abundantly clear during the Rangers playoff run that Manager Bruce Bochy has minimal trust in anyone other than Jose Leclerc, Aroldis Chapman, and Josh Sborz in his bullpen. Leclerc, Chapman, and Sborz have each appeared in over half of Texas’ postseason contests. No other member of the Texas arm barn has appeared in more than three games out of the bullpen.

The Rangers’ bullpen was able to survive the first two rounds of the MLB postseason, due to the 3-game and 5-game series format, neither of which requires a team to play on three consecutive days. However, this unit proved much more vulnerable in the ALCS, with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in seven games against the Astors.

The late innings are a major concern for Texas in this series, but less so in Game 1 if they can get another deep outing from Eovaldi.

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers – Picks & Predictions

NLCS, the Arizona Diamondbacks failed to score a run in the first five innings against Zack Wheeler in Game 1. The Texas Rangers had a similar five-day layoff between the Division Series and the ALCS, and scored only two runs total in Game 1 against Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros bullpen.

Much has been made during these playoffs about how abnormally long layoffs have negatively impacted offense. This is a real thing and it is likely to continue in Game 1 of the World Series. Both of these lineups are likely to get off to a slow start on Friday night.

PICK: Under 4.5 – First 5 Innings (-115, Fanatics Sportsbook)