Xander can shine in season-ending Tour Championship in Atlanta

AFTER almost 12 months of action across 48 stops and visits to places as far apart as Japan and the east coast of Scotland, the curtain will come down on the 2022/23 PGA Tour season at the end of the Tour Championship on Sunday night.

Amidst all of the change going on in professional golf, prompted by the emergence of the LIV Golf series, it is comforting to return to a familiar venue at East Lake Country Club in Atlanta, the traditional home to the season finale.

And with terms like ‘strategic alliances’ and ‘signature events’ being bandied about left, right and centre, it is nice to see the players focussing on a familiar goal – cold, hard cash.

Whoever walks away with Tour Championship glory and the FedEx Cup on Sunday night will also have a cheque for $18m in their back pocket, an alarming amount for playing any sort of sport, but not enough to keep many of the big names out of the clutches of the Saudis.

Not that the Tour Championship is short of stars, with the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings going to post from Thursday afternoon, all theoretically with a chance of taking the big prize when the weekend draws to a close.

However, the staggered leaderboard being used for the fifth successive season ensures that at least half of those in the line-up have no chance whatsoever, and rather can enjoy themselves, safe in the knowledge that getting this far has secured all the exemptions they need for next season, when even more riches will be up for grabs.

Scottie Scheffler leads the way heading into the final week, his remarkable consistency over the last number of months meaning he goes to post as top seed, and he will tee off at 10-under in the staggered system.

Scheffler was denied BMW Championship victory on Sunday night by a combination of a shocking putting display and a stunning final round of 61 by Viktor Hovland, whose performance sees him vault to second ahead of the Tour Championship.

The Norwegian – whose play will have had European Ryder Cup skipper Luke Donald licking his lips – begins here at eight-under, with reigning champion and three-time FedEx winner Rory McIlroy at seven-under, and Jon Rahm a further stroke back.

The leaderboard then goes all the way down to those players who qualified in 26th to 30th place, all of whom will start at level par and with a mountain to climb.

That said, they may all take encouragement from McIlroy’s win last term, when he started six adrift of Scheffler and promptly triple-bogeyed his first hole, but still made up the deficit to win by a shot.

Of course, not everyone has the scoring power of the Holywood man, and the fact that four of the top five players in the world lead the way will be off-putting for many.

In terms of betting this week, there are two distinct markets – the outright Tour Championship betting, and the 72-hole scoring market, which disregards the staggered leaderboard and has everyone teeing off on a level footing.

The latter has always been my main focus since the system changed in 2019, although it can be hard to keep a handle on due to the fact the broadcasters only care about the main leaderboard.

Being a nerd, I will keep my own scoring charts, although McIlroy made it easy last year as he outscored everyone else over the four days and made off with his third FedEx Cup.

He is a general 7/2 chance to win the Tour Championship and 6/1 (Boylesports) to top the scoring over four days, and given his three previous wins at East Lake  – and the fact this is a driver’s course – there is a level of temptation in both.

Certainly, I’m not interested in Scheffler at 6/4 to win the Tour Championship given his travails on the greens, regardless of his unwavering excellence elsewhere.

He couldn’t hold onto the lead here last year, when his putting gave a few signs of what was to come, while I dread to think how many times he has traded at odds-on since last winning a title at The Players in March.

In the four years of staggered starts so far, Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay got over the line as top seeds in 2020 and 2021, with McIlroy usurping Justin Thomas in 2019 and Scheffler last term.

None of the top seeds led the scoring over 72 holes, however, and there is definitely a feeling of being on the defensive from the off.

I’d be very tempted about McIlroy repeating the trick and becoming the first man to successfully defend the FedEx Cup, while Hovland has a real claim from two back if he can go anywhere close to last weekend’s form.

However, the best play is to focus on the 72-hole scoring and to that end I can’t look past Xander Schauffele, whose East Lake record rivals that of McIlroy.

The Californian is 12/1 to be the best player over the four days, something he has done twice here before – in 2017 on his way to winning the Tour Championship, and in 2020 when he outscored Johnson by four shots but had to watch DJ take all the silverware.

In addition, Schauffele was second-best to McIlroy in 2019 and third in 2021, when only Rahm and Kevin Na scored better.

That course pedigree can’t be ignored, while an eighth in Chicago on Sunday was the perfect warm-up, especially as it was enough to seal an automatic Ryder Cup berth, taking any stress about being on the flight to Rome out of the equation.

His approach play was a bit sloppy over the weekend at the BMW, but if Schauffele can tidy that up he should have another good week in Atlanta, even if a seven-shot deficit to the leader might be a bit much to overturn.

Max Homa, meanwhile, gave us an each-way return on Sunday by finishing fifth in Chicago, although after leading by three during the third round there is a tinge of disappointment.

Not that it’s enough to put us off, and Homa definitely has to be on the shortlist here, having fired a 15-under total on his Tour Championship debut 12 months ago, only bettered by McIlroy and Sungjae Im.

Indeed, prior to last year only Schauffele in 2020 had matched that four-round score in the last 15 years, which shows just how well Homa took to the East Lake challenge.

He returns in fine fettle having finished in the top-12 of his last four events, making birdies for fun along the way, and as he also has his Ryder Cup place secured, there is every chance he takes the handbrake off completely and shoots for the stars.

It’s doubtful Homa can get to the top of the Tour Championship standings from six back, but with five places on offer he might just be worth an each-way bet in that market at 33/1 with Paddy Power, while he has to be backed at 14/1 (William Hill) in the 72-hole scoring stakes.

Finally, Sungjae Im has to be of real interest given how he performed here last term, almost taking the whole shooting match before losing out to McIlroy by a stroke.

His 16-under for four days was a huge effort, and the fact he is now based in Atlanta and plays regularly at East Lake is a big advantage for the Korean.

He starts eight back and can go for broke from the off, while he is a great driver of the ball which is a major plus. 

A seventh in Chicago on Sunday on the back of sixth at the St Jude the previous week shows just how well Im is playing, and he should be backed at 22/1 in the 72-hole market.

He’s unlikely to do enough to pocket the $18m FedEx cheque, not that the money matters of course. 

TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP SELECTIONS
Xander Schauffele, best 72-hole score, e/w, 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Max Homa, best 72-hole score, e/w, 14/1 (William Hill); Tour Championship/FedEx Cup, e/w, 33/1 (Paddy Power)

Sungjae Im, best 72-hole score, e/w, 22/1 (William Hill)