Xavier vs. Villanova prediction, odds, line: 2023 college basketball picks, Feb. 21 best bets by proven model
The No. 16 Xavier Musketeers aim to continue their home dominance on Tuesday evening. Xavier welcomes the Villanova Wildcats to Cintas Center in Cincinnati for a Big East tilt. Xavier won the first matchup by an 88-80 margin on Jan. 7, and the Musketeers are 20-7 overall, 12-4 in Big East play, and 14-1 at home this season. Villanova is 13-14 overall and 7-9 against Big East foes.
The Musketeers are 4.5-point home favorites at Caesars Sportsbook for this 6 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 147 in the latest Villanova vs. Xavier odds. Before locking in any Xavier vs. Villanova picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 16 of the season 71-42 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Xavier vs. Villanova, and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Villanova vs. Xavier:
- Villanova vs. Xavier spread: Xavier -4.5
- Villanova vs. Xavier over/under: 147 points
- Villanova vs. Xavier money line: Xavier -205, Villanova +170
- NOVA: The Wildcats are 5-6 against the spread in road games
- XAV: The Musketeers are 8-6-1 against the spread in home games
- Villanova vs. Xavier picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Villanova can cover
Villanova has strong metrics on both sides of the floor. The Wildcats have two scorers averaging at least 15 points per game this season, with Caleb Daniels putting up 15.9 points per contest and Eric Dixon generating 15.7 points per game on 50% shooting. Villanova leads the country in free throw accuracy at 82.2% this season, and the Wildcats are above-average in 2-point accuracy (53.2%) and turnover rate (16.1%).
The Wildcats will face an Xavier defense that is outside the top 250 nationally in turnover creation rate (17.1%) on defense, and opponents shoot 36.6% from 3-point range against the Musketeers. Villanova is also strong on the defensive glass, securing 74.4% of available rebounds, and the Wildcats are well above-average in free throw prevention and assists allowed (14.3 per game).
Why Xavier can cover
Xavier's offense is excellent this season, headlined by senior guard Souley Boum. He is averaging 16.2 points and 4.7 assists per game while shooting 40.9% from 3-point range, and Boum leads a unit that ranks in the top ten of the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Xavier is an elite shooting team overall, including a top-five national mark in 3-point accuracy at 39.6%. Xavier also shoots 54.5% from inside the arc, and the Musketeers generate an assist on 66.5% of field goals, a top-five mark in the country.
In addition to shooting and passing strengths, Xavier commits a turnover on fewer than 18% of offensive possessions, and the Musketeers secure 30.7% of missed shots on the offensive glass. Villanova is outside the top 350 in the country in defensive block rate (4.8%), and the Wildcats are below-average in turnover creation.
How to make Villanova vs. Xavier picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 149 points. The model also says one side hits over 50% of the time. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.
