USC vs. Miami prediction, odds, line: 2022 NCAA Tournament picks, March Madness best bets from proven model
Power-conference programs take the stage in Greenville for a first-round matchup in the 2022 NCAA Tournament on Friday. Jim Larranaga and the Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes enter as the No. 10 seed in the Midwest Region, and they face Andy Enfield and the No. 7 seed Southern California Trojans. Miami finished 15-7 in ACC play and 23-10 overall this season. USC is 26-7 overall and 11-0 against teams outside the Pac-12.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Trojans as 2.5-point favorites for this 3:10 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 139.5 in the latest Miami vs. USC odds. Before making any USC vs. Miami picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Southern Cal vs. Miami and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2022. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model's college basketball picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Miami vs. Southern Cal:
- Miami vs. USC spread: USC -2.5
- Miami vs. USC over-under: 139.5 points
- Miami vs. USC money line: USC -135, Miami +115
- MIA: The Hurricanes are 3-8 against the spread in non-conference games
- USC: The Trojans are 5-6 against the spread in non-conference games
Why Miami can cover
Miami's strength is on offense, and the Hurricanes are blessed with top-tier guard play from veterans. Senior guard Kameron McGusty leads the way, averaging 17.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. McGusty is shooting 48 percent from the field and 37.3 percent from 3-point range, and he is a threat to explode against USC. Overall, the Hurricanes are in the top 20 of the country in offensive efficiency, ranking only behind Duke among ACC squads.
Miami is a potent shooting team, converting nearly 55 percent of 2-point attempts and more than 35 percent of 3-point attempts, and the Hurricanes are elite when it comes to ball security. Miami is committing a turnover on only 14.2 percent of possessions, No. 8 in the country, and USC is near the bottom of the nation in turnover creation rate at 14.7 percent. The Trojans struggle to create steals, and USC finished last in the Pac-12 in 3-point defense, with opponents shooting 38.8 percent during conference play.
Why USC can cover
USC has real balance on offense, but junior forward Isaiah Mobley leads the way. The brother of Cleveland Cavaliers standout Evan Mobley is averaging 14.3 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, and Mobley is a difficult matchup for any opponent. USC is in the top 50 of the country in adjusted efficiency, and the Trojans finished No. 3 in the Pac-12 in offense. USC led the conference in offensive rebound rate, securing more than 35 percent of missed shots, and the Trojans are shooting over 35 percent from 3-point range this season.
USC is strong in creating free-throw attempts, and the Trojans commit a turnover on only 17.7 percent of possessions, a mark that is better than the national average. Miami's defense is near the bottom of the country in a key area, ranking No. 319 in shooting efficiency allowed. Opponents are shooting 53.9 percent on 2-point attempts and 35.2 percent on 3-point attempts against the Hurricanes, and Miami is below-average on the defensive glass.
How to make Miami vs. USC picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 141 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
