Yankees-Astros prediction: Picks, odds on Sunday, September 3

Just days after essentially waving the white flag on their 2023 season, the New York Yankees have come into Houston and taken the first two games of their weekend set against the Astros. They’ll look for an improbable sweep on Sunday Night Baseball, with first pitch from Minute Maid Park set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Reliever-turned-starter Michael King (3-5, 2.96 ERA) will get the ball for New York, while Houston counters with struggling righty Cristian Javier (9-2, 4.66).

The Astros enter as -135 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Yankees at -114. The run total is set at 8.5.

Yankees-Astros picks: Sunday, September 3

Injury report

Yankees

Out: 1B Anthony Rizzo (concussion), OF Billy McKinney (left lower back spasm), SP Nestor Cortes (left rotator cuff strain)

Astros

Day-to-day: 2B Jose Altuve (leg contusion), RP Kendall Graveman (lower back discomfort)
Out: INF Grae Kessinger (health and safety protocols)

Starting pitchers

Michael King vs. Cristian Javier

King has been one of the team’s best relievers over the past couple of years, but with New York’s rotation in flux, the righty has gone from opener to starter in recent weeks. He got stretched all the way out to 61 pitches last time out, going four scoreless innings with five strikeouts against the Tigers, and the team could continue to build him up over the season’s final weeks.

Javier’s second-half struggles continued in August, with a 6.17 ERA over five starts for the month. The main problem has been a lack of command; the righty has walked a staggering 26 batters over his last nine starts, and working from behind in counts means trouble for a pitcher who throws a fastball and slider pretty much exclusively. Lefties have also given Javier trouble, with an .842 OPS allowed.

Over/Under pick

I still don’t trust this Yankees lineup, even after scoring a combined 11 runs across the first two games of this series, and Javier has been much tougher on righties than lefties this season — which should put him in line for a bounce-back effort against a righty-heavy New York offense. King’s excellent stuff has translated well to a starter’s workload, and if he can go four or five quality innings again, we should hit the under here.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

At this point, I’ve learned my lesson that the Yankees aren’t to be trusted, even with a seeming advantage in the pitching matchup. Javier gave up three runs over 4.2 innings last time he faced New York, but with Houston needing a win to keep pace in the AL West, I think Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Co. provide just enough run support to avoid a sweep.