Yankees vs. Astros odds, picks and predictions for series
Since the All-Star Break, the Yankees have dropped 10 of 16 games and have not won a series outside of a sweep over the Kansas City Royals, who own the second worst record in baseball.
The Yankees (55-52, last in AL East entering Wednesday) find themselves 11 games back of the first-place Baltimore Orioles and are trending toward missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Even with Aaron Judge back from the injured list, the Yankees still can't solve their current hitting woes. They've scored three or fewer runs in six of their last seven games. To the dismay of Yankee fanatics, the team stood pat for the most part by Tuesday's 6 p.m. trade deadline. They added reliever Keynan Middleton from the Chicago White Sox and minor leaguer Spencer Howard from the Texas Rangers.
To make matters worse, the Yankees welcome the Houston Astros (61-47, 2nd in AL West), who have won 11 of their past 16 games and re-acquired Justin Verlander from the Mets prior to the deadline. Astros' ace Framber Valdez also threw a no-hitter on 93 pitches on Tuesday against the Cleveland Guardians.
Can the Yankees offense finally come alive against a surging Astros team? Or will they continue to free fall further down the standings? Here are my picks and predictions for this four-game set in the Bronx.
Thursday, 7:15 p.m.: Clarke Schmidt (7-6, 4.39) vs. Cristian Javier (7-2, 4.33)
Outside of ace Gerrit Cole, the Yankees' most consistent pitcher this season has been Schmidt. He's won five of his previous six starts and has 13 straight appearances of allowing three or fewer runs. The 27-year-old has only four strikeouts his past two outings but continues to limit the damage in the 5+ innings of work he's provided.
After a hot start to the season (7-1, 2.84 ERA through 12 starts), Javier has cooled off a bit. The right-hander has not earned a win in two months (Jun. 3 vs. Angels) and has seen his ERA rise to 4.33 on the season. Walks have been a big issue for Javier recently as he has given up 16 free passes in his prior six starts.
If the Bronx Bombers can work Javier into long counts they'll have a shot, but ultimately they come up just short in game one of the series.
Prediction: Astros 5, Yankees 2
Friday, 7:05 p.m.: Luis Severino (2-5, 7.49) vs. Hunter Brown (7-7, 4.12)
It couldn't have gotten worse for Severino in his last start on Sunday night. He allowed six runs on five hits before recording an out in the first inning against the Orioles. Severino finished the game allowing a season-high nine runs and 10 hits in just 3 1/3 innings. After posting an 11.22 ERA in July, there's been rumblings of the Yankees potentially skipping Severino's spot on Friday night and potentially moving the veteran to the bullpen.
Brown started off July with three straight losses and failed to make it to the sixth inning during that time span. However, the 24-year-old has put together back-to-back quality outings, including winning his most recent start versus the Tampa Bay Rays on July 29.
This comes down to whether Severino starts the game, but if he does, I expect him to struggle against an Astros' team that ranks sixth in the American League in runs scored this season.
Prediction: Astros 7, Yankees 5
Saturday, 1:05 p.m.: Undecided vs. J.P. France (7-3, 2.85)
The Yankees have yet to name a starter for Saturday afternoon. Stay tuned as I will update as soon as the team announces who will take the mound.
Unlike Brown, France was red-hot last month. The 28-year-old rookie won four of five appearances and went seven innings in each of his past three starts. France has been a solid rotation piece since joining the Astros in early May and provides even more depth with Verlander back in Houston.
Sunday, 1:35 p.m.: Carlos Rodon (1-4, 6.29) vs. Framber Valdez (9-4, 3.07)
After his best outing as a Yankee on July 26 versus the Mets, Rodon struggled again on Tuesday. He surrendered four runs in four innings to pick up his fourth loss in five starts. Command continues to be an issue for Rodon as he has 16 walks and just 20 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings in pinstripes. The 30-year-old southpaw has yet to make it out of the fifth inning and faces a team in Houston that has a .263 average versus left-handed pitchers, good for ninth-best in MLB.
You can't get off to a better start to a month than Valdez. He recorded the first ever lefty no-hitter in Astros' history and threw the fewest pitches this century in the aforementioned no-hit effort (93). This feat was coming off his worst start of the season where he went a season-low 3 2/3 innings and gave up a season-high six runs on eight hits with just one strikeout in a 13-5 loss against the Texas Rangers on July 26.
While Valdez will almost certainly regress from the no-hitter, I do believe he'll dominate a sluggish Yankees' lineup that hits just .237 against lefties, tied for sixth worst in baseball.
