Rays-Astros prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, July 28

AL powers collide in a potential postseason preview as the Tampa Bay Rays (62-43) head west to take on the Houston Astros (58-45) this weekend. First pitch of Friday’s opener from Minute Maid Park is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Tampa will send ace Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.89 ERA) to the mound, while Houston counters with righty Cristian Javier (7-2, 4.32).

After a historic start to the season, the Rays have been in a freefall of late, dropping eight of their last 10 to fall three behind the Baltimore Orioles in the loss column in the AL East. What had been the best offense in baseball now looks shockingly average, while the rotation has been decimated by injuries. After this weekend, Tampa will continue its road trip with another big series in the Bronx against the New York Yankees.

Houston has won three straight series to start the second half, and with Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve back in the fold, the reigning world champs are looking awfully dangerous. Houston could pull even with the Rays for the top AL Wild Card spot after this weekend. They’ll welcome Cleveland to Minute Maid Park for a three-game set early next week.

This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Rays at -115 and the Astros at -105. The run total is set at 8.5.

Rays-Astros picks: Friday, July 28

Injury report

Rays

Day to day: SP Zach Eflin (knee), INF Yandy Diaz (groin)
Out: INF Taylor Walls (oblique), C Francisco Mejia (knee),

Astros

Out: SP Jose Urquidy (shoulder), OF Michael Brantley (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Shane McClanahan vs. Cristian Javier

After a torrid start in which he looked like the AL Cy Young favorite, McClanahan has been slumping along with his team of late, allowing 13 runs on 17 hits and eight walks over 16.2 innings across his last four starts. He’s battled back problems over that stretch as well. When he’s right, though, the lefty possesses one of the most electric arsenals in the game, a high-90s fastball to go with a nasty curveball and changeup.

Javier is another promising young starter who went through a recent rough patch, posting an 8.44 ERA over a six-start span from June 9 to July 16. The righty relies on two pitches, a four-seam fastball up in the zone and a slider down and away to righties, but he hasn’t been able to throw the latter for strikes consistently of late — allowing batters to key in on his heater. He did allow just two runs over 5.2 innings against the Oakland Athletics last time out, but 1) it was the A’s and 2) he still walked a whopping six batters. Javier clearly isn’t all the way back to his 2022 self yet.

Over/Under pick

This feels like it could break in any number of directions. McClanahan and Javier have electric stuff, but they’ve been struggling a bit of late. The Rays were among baseball’s best offenses for the first three months but have fallen off significantly in July, while the Astros are heating up. In the end, though, I’m siding with the pitching; Tampa has cleared this over exactly once in their last eight games, while the Astros have only done so in three out of eight and have their work cut out for them against McClanahan.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

It’s just very hard to trust this Rays offense right now, especially if Diaz is forced to miss more time with his groin injury. Just about everyone in Tampa’s lineup is struggling right now, and I trust the star power of Altuve, Alvarez and Kyle Tucker to generate enough run support for the Astros to get a series-opening win.