Yankees vs. Mets odds, prediction: Subway Series MLB picks Tuesday

The Subway Series begins Tuesday in Queens, and Vegas oddsmakers aren’t high on the entertainment value of the matchup. 

The Game 1 total opened at 7, which is excruciatingly low for a matchup between two star-studded teams.

However, neither team has been hitting lately, the Yankees are missing Aaron Judge, and we have a great pitching matchup between Luis Severino and Max Scherzer. 

But exactly how good is this starting pitching matchup?

I’d say it’s actually bad.

Yankees vs. Mets prediction for Game 1 of the Subway Series

(7:07 p.m. ET. TBS)

Severino enters this series with a 5.75 ERA and 6.20 expected ERA after allowing 11 earned runs in nine innings to the White Sox and Dodgers.

Meanwhile, Scherzer’s fastball velocity is down, and pitching models project him as a mid-3.00s ERA pitcher. 

At this point, it’s hard to project either as better than a mid-rotation guy. 

Also, the Mets’ bullpen has been shaky (26th in reliever ERA over the past month), and they don’t project out as an elite fielding team (around 20th in both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved).

The Yankees are far better in both departments but take a hit defensively without Judge. 

So, despite how dreadful these two lineups have looked, the total seems too low considering the entire matchup.

There will be too many opportunities for runs across all nine frames, and each team only has to scrape a few across.  

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Yankees vs. Mets pick

THE PLAY: Yankees-Mets over 7.5 runs (-110, FanDuel)