Yankees vs Mets Picks, Odds & Player Props to Target (June 13)
Odds as of June 12 at Bet365. Claim a Bet365 bonus code to bet on Tuesday’s MLB action.
NYY vs NYM Probable Pitchers
Despite underwhelming first halves for both the Yankees and Mets, each team remains a top-11 contender in the World Series odds. The Mets will send ace Max Scherzer to the hill on Tuesday, and the three-time Cy Young odds champion will be looking to rebound from a rough night.
Scherzer was tagged for 11 hits and five runs last time out versus the Braves in only 5.2 innings. It marked the third time in nine starts he’s allowed five or more runs, but in between he’s been brilliant.
The 38-year-old has allowed one earned run or less in the other six outings, shutting out three separate opponents including the high powered Dodgers. He’s still racking up big strikeout numbers, posting a K/9 rate of 10, and sat down 11 Atlanta batters in his most recent start.
He’ll have a favorable matchup versus the shorthanded Yankees, as the Bronx Bombers have suffered a power outage since Aaron Judge went on the injured list. Scherzer has had his way with the current Yankee bats in the past, holding them to a .207 average over 116 at-bats, while recording 30 strikeouts.
Severino vs Scherzer Stats
The Yankees will counter with Luis Severino, who’s looked awful now in back-to-back starts. Severino was rocked by the White Sox for six hits and four runs last time out, which followed up a 4 inning outing against the Dodgers where he yielded nine hits and seven runs.
He’s coughed up six home runs in those two outings, posting an ERA of 11.00. Severino was sharp in his first two starts of the season, after missing nearly two months due to a lat strain, but he’s since lost velocity on his fastball and appears to be catching the Mets at the wrong time.
After struggling at the dish for the bulk of the season, the Mets regulars in the MLB starting lineups have started to show some life. That’s bad news for Severino, who hasn’t exactly excelled against them in the past. He’s surrendered a .286/.333/.500 slash line to Mets hitters over 42 at-bats, recording only one more strikeout (6) than extra-base hit allowed (5).
Yankees vs Mets Predictions
The Mets enter play averaging 5.3 runs per outing over the last week. That’s up a full run from their season average, but it hasn’t translated into victories thanks to their abysmal pitching. They’ve given up 49 runs over their last seven games, but there’s reason to believe they can correct that on Tuesday.
It starts with a Judge-less Yankees lineup. When the top-two AL MVP odds contender went down he took the Yankees mojo with him. The Yanks are averaging only three runs per game without him, crossing the plate seven times total in a three-game weekend set with the Red Sox.
They’re hitting a woeful .189 during that stretch, with an OPS that is .119 points lower than their season long mark. The Yankees are also missing Harrison Bader from the starting lineup, and Giancarlo Stanton’s return from a lengthy IL stint hasn’t helped one bit.
Stanton is 3-for-21 since rejoining the team, recording only one hit in his last 14 at-bats. He’s struck out in 12 of 24 career at-bats versus Scherzer, and the Mets righty should have no problem racking up K’s on Tuesday.
The same cannot be said for Severino. His K/9 rate has declined in each of the past three seasons, and while the Mets offense has disappointed for most of the year, it hasn’t been due to big strikeout totals. The Mets whiff at MLB’s fourth lowest rate, and have just a 14% K rate all-time versus Severino.
Pick: New York Mets moneyline (-140), Luis Severino under 4.5 K’s (+128)
