2024 Valspar Championship Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

2024 Valspar Championship Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

This article is part of our Golf Picks series.

The Florida Swing concludes this week with the Valspar Championship, which will be held on the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor.

The good news for everyone teeing it up is that they won't have to compete with Scottie Scheffler, who picked up the win each of the past two weeks. While this event follows a pair of marquee events, we still have a solid field, with seven of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking on hand, a group of players headlined by Xander Schauffele -- the tournament favorite at 7-1 odds.

Last year, Taylor Moore -- at 50-1 -- captured his first PGA Tour victory by one shot over Adam Schenk.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Par-71, 7,340 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Valspar Championship Winners Since 2018

  • SG: Off-the-Tee: 32.2
  • SG: Approach: 7.4
  • SG: Around-the-Green: 17.8
  • SG: Putting: 16.6
  • SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.6
  • Driving Distance: 19.4
  • Driving Accuracy: 33.2

The Copperhead Course is most known for its closing three-hole stretch known as the 'Snake Pit.' Golfers can't coast to the finish line, as the final three holes features two tough par-4s with a long par-3 sandwiched in between. As we can see from the stats above, approach and tee-to-green play stand out as key statistics, with the winner ranking fifth or better in SG: Tee-to-Green four straight years. Off the tee, players are faced with tree-lined fairways that are quite narrow, and that puts more of a premium on accurate drivers over bombers. Only the four par-5s play under par, so I'll be looking toward those that play par-5s well and players who avoid bogeys. I'll also target golfers that approach it well from 175 yards and up, as we won't see many wedges this week.

These golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average over the last five tournaments at the Copperhead Course.

NeSmith has gotten the job done at Innisbrook, posting a T21 in his 2021 debut and finishing just one shot back the next year before missing this event in 2023 with a back injury. He led the field in SG: Approach in 2022, although something will have to give between his course history and his current form, as he has not posted a top-25 across seven starts this year. Another player who has shown a fondness for this venue is Im, who has posted only one round above par on this difficult setup across eight tries. He's coming off a couple of respectable weeks, finishing T18 at Bay Hill and T31 last week, when he ranked fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee. Im comes in just outside the top six betting choices at 25-1.

The following players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

It's no shock to see the tournament favorite leading the way. Schauffele has found success consistently this year, with five top-10s across seven starts. The wins continue to evade him, but he was in contention late in two of his last three tournaments. This will be only Schauffele's second attempt in this event, and he finished tied for 12th in 2022. The only player to make both lists is Thomas, who has noted that Copperhead is one of his favorite courses. That is seen in his results, as he has recorded five top-20 finishes in six appearances, including a best finish of T3 in 2022. Thomas -- who check in at 14-1 -- missed two of his last three cuts, and it was his short game that surprisingly let him down last week.

On top of coming in hot after finishing one shot back at TPC Sawgrass, Harman has also had success here with a T5 finish two years ago. His iron game is an excellent form, as he led the field in SG: Approach last week and was third at Bay Hill.

Bezuidenhout has not won on the PGA Tour but does have a pair of runner-up results, including the first appearance in 2024 when he finished one shot back of Nick Dunlap at The American Express. Bezuidenhout is coming off a top-15 at THE PLAYERS and ranks eighth in SG: Approach this season. 

Schenk finished runner-up here last year and had a top-20 in 2021, so he clearly likes the course. He's another guy that's still in search of his first win, and with seven top-10s since this event last year, it feels like it's only a matter of time.

I hit a top-10 bet with Harman last week, and I'll start this week with Todd, who posted a top-10 result at Bay Hill two weeks ago. He's an excellent course fit with a stellar short game, and his lack of distance isn't much of a deterrent here.

Berger's results haven't been great since his return, but I have faith in him still getting going in his home state. Statistically he has been solid, gaining over a quarter of a shot per round off the tee and on approach. He's also fifth in driving accuracy.

Sigg has had a decent start to the year with a pair of top-20s over his last six events. He stands out in a few categories, ranking 37th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 19th in approach this season. He also ranked seventh in SG: Approach in this tournament last year.

DraftKings isn't currently offering head-to-head matchup bets, so I'll pivot to a couple of players I'm fading. Lee will be making his debut at Copperhead, and I don't see this being a good course fit for him. He likes to overpower courses, and that won't work here. Considering he's losing shots on approach and in the short game this year, it could be an early exit for Lee.

Taylor's scoring average at Innisbrook of 71.6, coupled with three missed cuts in his last seven starts, makes him a good bet to miss the weekend at nearly 2-1 odds. His stock seems to be at an all-time high thanks to a pair of wins over the last year, but I expect some regression and am going to exercise caution here.

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