Valspar Championship odds, predictions and best bets for PGA Tour props this week

The Sporting News
Valspar Championship odds, predictions and best bets for PGA Tour props this week

OK everybody, take a deep breath and relax.

After a heart-pounding finish (well, for golf fans anyway) at last week’s Players Championship, the PGA Tour wraps up the 2024 four-tournament Florida swing this week with the Valspar Championship.

This tournament, being held at the Copperhead at Innisbrook, has a tough act to follow as Scottie Scheffler’s final round rally at the Players saw him go back-to-back in a star-studded event.

This week, the star-power is definitely dialed back as just 17 of the world’s top 50 players are teeing it up.

But, a couple of those players -- Xander Schauffele and Brian Harman -- elevate this week’s Florida finale.

Then it will be off to Texas for a pair of events before the year’s first major--the Masters--puts golf front-and-center in the betting world for at least one week.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves.

Let’s take a look at Valspar Championship odds and props and see who just might hoist the trophy on Sunday.

This tournament has a big strike against it right out of the gate.

Many of the big-name players who teed it up at the Players Championship aren’t here this week and are en route to Texas.

Extra time off this week sets many of them up for a quick three-week stretch with two tournaments in Texas followed by … drumroll, please … the Masters.

Whatever their game plan, this week’s Valspar event sees a field that opens up the chance for those down the list when it comes to money and status on the PGA Tour.

Maybe it’s time for one of them to take advantage of weeks like this one.

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Valspar Championship odds: Schauffele a worthy favorite

We really don’t want to make this pick because we really don’t like betting the favorite.

But, like last week when we backed Scheffler as the favorite, it needs to be done again this week.

Xander Schauffele, the favorite this week at , hasn’t won since he went back-to-back in the 2022 season, winning the Travelers Championship and then the Genesis Scottish Open.

But it hasn’t been for lack of effort.

In the 2022-2023 season he was 23-for-23 in cuts made and had 11 top-10 finishes including a pair of runner-ups.

This year he’s seven-for-seven in cuts made with five top 10s and last week’s runner-up finish at the Players Championship, when Scheffler rallied from five shots back to win.

In his career, Schauffele has seven PGA Tour titles so he’s comfortable in the spotlight.

With a lot of the top-ranked players taking the week off, it’s an ideal spot for Schauffele to put victory No. 8 on his resume.

Despite his low odds, he should be front-and-center this week, just like Scheffler last week.

PGA Tour odds: Consider backing Harman at Valspar

For Brian Harman, at this week, it was another week of ‘oh-so-close’ last week at the Players Championship.

Harman, like Schauffele, wound up T-2 last week to Scheffler’s impressive comeback.

It was another one of those close calls for Harman.

Harman is seven-for-seven in made cuts in 2024 with last week’s T-2 being his best finish.

He’s got two top-10s and four top-25s this season so he’s been in the picture just about every time he plays.

For his career, he’s got three PGA Tour wins.

His biggest win came in 2023 when he won the Open Championship for his first major proving he can certainly handle pressure on the biggest of stages.

His runner-up last week on another big stage solidifies that no spotlight is too bright.

As one of just two top-10 players in the world rankings in this week’s field (along with Schauffele), there’s no doubt Harman should be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Longshot bet to consider for Valspar Championship

For some reason, Adam Schenk isn’t getting any love this week as he comes in at to win.


He’s coming off a T-19 finish at last week’s star-filled Players Championship with four solid rounds and was T-2 here in 2023, losing by a shot to eventual champion Taylor Moore.

Like we said, hmmm.

He finished one shot out of a playoff last year and closed with back-to-back one-under-par rounds so he’s going to be coming in with a positive attitude.

He’s still looking for that first PGA Tour win and with the strength of the field, this might just be his time.

Valspar Championship prop picks

We’re going to take a look at Maverick McNealy to finish in the top 20 at .

McNealy, still looking for that first PGA Tour victory, has suddenly found life in his game.

He’s made six-of-seven cuts in 2024.

That’s the good news.

The better news is he’s finished in the top-20 in three of his last four tournaments including T-9 last week at the Players Championship.

And he finished in the top-10 despite a final-round 72 that saw him drop five spots from his starting spot heading into the final round.

With one birdie and one bogey on his scorecard despite ideal conditions, he’s going to be kicking himself for not finishing better.

With the way he’s been playing and with the talent-level in this week’s field down a little, bettors might also look at a top-10 () or even a top-five ().

And if you’re really feeling lucky, he’s to get that first win.

One more bet that sticks out to us is a threesome pick to win the tournament. The trio, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Sungjae Im, come in at +500 if any of them win.

They all have the talent. They all have the experience. They all have plenty of PGA Tour wins.

It all comes down to being in the right spot at the right time.

One final prop look: We’re betting there will be a playoff at +330. Over the last 10 years (with one event cancelled due to COVID), there have been three playoffs.

That gives us hope but what really has us intrigued is the fact that five other tournaments were won by a single stroke meaning there certainly could have been a playoff.