Afghanistan v Australia preview and best bets

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05 November 2023

Cricket betting tips: Afghanistan v Australia

2pts Fazalhaq Farooqi top Afghanistan bowler at 7/2 (General)

Punters face a real conundrum when Australia take on Afghanistan at the Wankhede Stadium on Tuesday, 8.30am, UK time.

Adam Zampa has now won the top Australia bowler market in each of their last five matches, claiming 19 wickets in all to become the current leading wicket-taker at the World Cup.

As such, the 11/4 still available about Zampa collecting again on Tuesday jumps off the page, for all there is a sense of inevitability that the wrist spinner will endure a quiet game before too long.

I don’t usually get too concerned with a player being due a good or bad game, but more dissuading is this ground, which can be a really tough place for spinners to bowl, especially at this World Cup in the second innings when the new ball has done plenty under lights.

That, more than anything else, is enough to stop me from having a bet, and I wouldn’t be surprised were Josh Hazlewood rested here, given his chequered recent injury record and that this is a relatively quick turnaround from Saturday’s victory over England.

With that in mind, I could easily see Pat Cummins winning, or even Sean Abbott who might well get a game and would suddenly look a big price at 6/1. With so many imponderables and Zampa’s hot streak, I’ll sit tight, but it certainly makes for an interesting dilemma.

The match itself ought to prove a good test for Australia, with Afghanistan still in the mix for a semi-finals spot themselves having won four of their seven matches so far.

Once a fine bowling side with a dangerous, but reckless, batting line-up, Afghanistan have been a picture of solidity in India, producing a series of assured run chases that would have at one time been beyond them. Head coach and former England batsman Jonathan Trott has instilled some real steal into this team, and it’s working.

Things ramp up a gear when they face Australia, however, Pat Cummins’ side having left behind a slow start to their campaign by winning their last five, including when scoring just shy of 400 against New Zealand, and then when beating England at the weekend.

Australia look to be peaking just at the right time, and with a fit again Travis Head joining a red-hot David Warner at the top of the order, big scores look very attainable for a bating unit also featuring Steve Smith and Glenn Maxwell.

It is in such a scenario that Afghanistan appear likely to be outgunned, so I’m in no rush to suggest betting the shock.

I’m also cooler than usual on the prospects of Ibrahim Zadran in the top Afghanistan batsman market, as much due to the nagging doubt about him against the short ball Australia’s strong pace attack is well-equipped to deliver, as his relatively underwhelming returns so far at this World Cup.

The top Afghanistan bowler market makes more appeal, with FAZALHAQ FAROOQI ticking plenty of boxes at 7/2.

The left-arm swing bowler won this market when claiming 4-34 against Sri Lanka two games ago and though having the likes of Rashid Khan and Mujeeb Ur Rahman in opposition, it’s worth noting that in the three matches played on this ground at the World Cup so far, not once has the top bowler market been won by a spinner.

Just as I’m happy to let Zampa go for that reason in the Australia market, it means I’m happy to give Rashid and Mujeeb the swerve for Afghanistan.

Farooqi swings the new ball away from the left handers at decent pace, so ought to give Warner and Head plenty to think about, while the value of a good, left-arm quick at the death can never be underestimated.

On this ground in particular, Farooqi rates a bet at 7/2.