Athletics vs Angels Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

24 April 2023

Athletics vs Angels Prediction, Picks, Odds

Both the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics perform well against southpaws. That's why we're expecting plenty of runs to be scored in our MLB betting picks with two struggling lefties on the mound Monday.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There are rough starts, there are terrible starts, and then there’s the Oakland Athletics (4-18) in 2023.

The A’s hold the worst record in MLB, and they've failed to remain even slightly competitive. They’ll look to right the ship somewhat during a four-game series against the Los Angels Angels (11-11).

Despite boasting two of the sport’s greatest players in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Angels haven’t achieved any postseason success in recent memory. They’ll try to get above .500 starting Monday night.

Athletics vs Angels odds

Athletics vs Angels predictions

Monday’s meeting between the Oakland A’s and Los Angeles Angels will feature two struggling left-handers in Oakland’s Ken Waldichuk and Los Angeles’ Jose Suarez.

Waldichuk was typically a high-strikeout pitcher in the minors, but that game plan hasn’t translated over to the big leagues. After posting a solid 22.6% strikeout rate in 2022 across 34 2/3 innings in MLB, he’s down to just 16.7% following four starts in 2023.

He's not fooling batters much, posting just a 9.6% swinging strike rate. Batters have been content to pick up free passes, skyrocketing his walk rate up to 10.4%. Waldichuck is getting shelled when he’s not walking batters, allowing an 8.7% barrel rate.

Meanwhile, Suarez has been trying and failing to fool batters this season, notching just a 9.3% swinging strike rate, down nearly 2.5% from a year ago. He’s allowing an 8.2% barrel rate after three starts, a continuation of last year when he posted an ugly 8.4% rate.

Both lineups are hitting lefties well this season, but especially the Angels. They rank third in wRC+ (130) and fourth in wOBA (.369) against southpaws, and are one of the league's best teams in both categories. Oakland checks in at 13th in wRC+ (106).

The A's are also 16th in wOBA (.313) on the campaign, and the Over has cashed during four straight games when they've faced a left-handed starter.

My best bet: Over 9.5 (-109 at BetRivers)

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Athletics vs Angels moneyline analysis

It shouldn't surprise anyone that the Angels are favored in this matchup against the miserable A’s. The best price available on the Angels currently is -195 through WynnBet, while the A's are at +185 through BetRivers.

The Angels have been dominating this matchup at home, winning six of the last eight meetings at Angel Stadium. They're 4-1 in their previous five home games overall. The squad has also been faring well against southpaws, notching seven wins in Los Angeles' last nine home games against lefty starters.

Oakland’s misery has been well-documented. The A’s have compiled the worst record in MLB and have lost nine of their last 10 games entering this four-game series.

It would really help if the A’s could get a better performance from their pitching staff. Waldichuk has underperformed after ZiPS projections called for a 4.33 ERA and 24.7% strikeout rate. There were things to like about his profile heading into the season, but it’s hard to be a believer until his walk rate, swinging strike rate, and barrel rate improve.

Athletics vs Angels Over/Under analysis

After opening at 9.5, the total has moved to 10 at some spots. I’d play the Over up to 10, but wouldn’t want to pay a price above that mark.

Oakland is bad right now, but the team still hits lefties well. At least the club’s numbers in that department aren’t an embarrassment like elsewhere.

The A’s get a good matchup here against a struggling Suarez who's posted a concerning 6.36 xERA and 6.15 FIP to start the year. He’s issuing far too many free passes, as his walk rate has jumped up to 11.1% after being 7.1% a year ago.

Once it gets past the starters, a terrible Oakland bullpen that ranks dead last in both ERA (6.99) and WHIP (1.67) could allow some runs. The pen has coughed up a whopping 72 earned runs already in 2022, 17 more than the next worse team (Kansas City at 55).

The Angels’ bullpen has been decent this season with a 3.56 ERA. But the A’s unit has been so pitiful that bettors can still hope for and expect runs to be scored in this game after the starters depart for the day.

Athletics vs Angels game info

Athletics vs Angels betting preview

Starting pitchers

Ken Waldichuk (0-2, 7.65 ERA): The young left-hander was shelled four 14 earned runs across his first two starts of the season, but he’s since settled in with just three allowed over 11 1/3 innings during his two most recent outings. His 7.92 FIP hints strongly at bad things to come, and he’ll need to cut down on both his 10.4% walk rate and propensity to allow home runs (3.15 HR/9).

Jose Suarez (0-1, 9.26 ERA): Suarez is the same age as Waldichck (25) and is also a left-hander. His ERA is through the roof as well, which makes them basically twins. He’ll look to get back on track after a terrible start to the season. He found success last campaign with a 3.67 xERA and 3.91 FIP across 109 innings.