Big Ten football betting preview: Take the over or under on Penn State

James Franklin has been coaching the Penn State Nittany Lions since 2014, and in those nine seasons, he and his teams have surpassed the double-digit win mark four times In 2016 Franklin actually steered the team to a Big Ten title, but for Nittany Lion fans that was a long time ago and Penn State has been in the second tier of the Big Ten behind Michigan and Ohio State every other season.

Penn State is 3-9 against the big two since 2017 and it has lost to both in the same season since Franklin’s arrival five times. Jame Franklin is an odd coach, because he is at that sweet spot, where Penn State is always solid, but never really great, and you can point to a number of times where his situational awareness was not exactly peak.

DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM have the Nittany Lion win total at 9.5 and we are going to dive into how to attack that number.

Strengths

It is shocking how little hype is surrounding the Penn State offensive line. Everyone is aware of the star power of potential top draft pick, Olumuyiwa Fashanu at offensive tackle, but the other four starters are All-Big Ten worthy players. This unit was elite last season and every projected starter started at least five games last season.

Weakness

The quarterback situation for the Nittany Lions is similar to that of Ohio State and it’s not necessarily a weakness, but more of an unknown. The big difference though is that C.J. Stroud was far superior and integral to the Buckeye offense than Sean Clifford was to the Penn State offense and therefore easier shoes to fill.

Drew Allar is a former five-star recruit who was the number-one quarterback in the class of 2022 and showed some flashes in the ten games he saw action in, completing 35 of his 60 pass attempts for 344 yards and four touchdowns.

Strengths

Defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, has this defense cooking and no one on that side of the ball shined brighter than the linebackers. Curtis Jacobs was the only returning starter heading into 2022 and elevated his play to the point where he will be a possible All-American this season. Abdul Carter, who was a true freshman last season, tallied 10.5 tackles for loss and led the Nittany Lions in sacks with 6.5.

Weakness

The Penn State defensive backfield lost two studs, Joey Porte Jr. and Ji’Ayir Brown. Replacing them may be a tough task. This group returns Kalen King who led the Big Ten with 21 pass deflections last season and Johnny Dixon who is expected to be the starter at the other corner, but he isn’t a lock to be elite. This could be a unit that takes a step back after losing such top-tier talent, but again less of a weakness and more of a question mark.

What it all means

This is the best Nittany Lions roster I have seen in recent memory. Their only weaknesses still have sky-high potential and at worst are average units. If James Franklin can’t accomplish something with this roster, questions about Franklin’s ability to get the program over the hump will continue.

When breaking down the schedule, Penn State has ten confident wins and two toss-up games, and if we make each toss-up game worth half a game, that puts our predicted win total at 11. The toss-up games are against Ohio State in Columbus and against Michigan at home. Both contests are later in the season, which should allow Allar to find his footing. The Nittany Lions should be able to get one of those wins and this roster is talented enough to get both. With the win total at a consensus of 9.5, this is the first team I have dove into that I am 100% putting my own money on to hit the over.