No. 11 Penn State vs. Michigan State: Expert score predictions for Black Friday Land Grant Trophy showdown

No. 11 Penn State (9-2, 6-2) closes the 2023 regular season against unranked Michigan State at Ford Field in Detroit Friday. These are the Lions247 Expert Score Predictions for the Land Grant Trophy matchup, which is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. and will be carried by NBC.

As of Monday night, our friends at Caesars Sportsbook had the Nittany Lions as 21-point favorites. The over/under was 42.5. While those numbers may change, they are what we will use for the sake of the competition.

Our popular game-week picks panel includes the four Lions247 full-time staffers, former Penn State All-Big Ten offensive tackle Keith “Goon” Conlin, special guest Ed001, and many of the long-time site contributors who help moderate the boards and/or contribute content to Lions247.

This year, we are adding 247Sports national recruiting expert Brian Dohn to the panel. Also, we’re going to include a prediction from a writer who covers each week’s PSU opponent, getting help from our 247Sports sister sites when possible.

As always, your feedback on our predictions is not only welcomed, but also encouraged. But remember, if you disagree with something you see, just don’t say that you have a different opinion, but please let us know what it is.

And, of course, we want to see your prediction as well. So please join in.

STAFF

MARK BRENNAN (Lions247 Staff)

Sparty is a distant last in the Big Ten in scoring offense at 17.4 ppg, and that number shrinks all the way down to 13.5 in conference play after MSU managed to post zero and three points respectively in blowout losses to Michigan and at Ohio State. With the Penn State defense playing as well as it is, this will mark the second straight week where the only way the Nittany Lions can lose is if the offense completely implodes and commits a rash of turnovers. And I just don’t see that happening for a unit that — while inconsistent throughout the season — has lost five fumbles and one interception in 11 games.

I’m not gong to say Drew Allar’s availability for this game is beside the point. Ideally he’s healthy, and interim co-offensive coordinators Ja'Juan Seider and Ty Howle can capitalize on his strengths AND those of backup Beau Pribula. Pribula has earned that after the way the offense responded when he took over for the injured Allar against Rutgers, and head coach James Franklin has been saying for weeks now that the team is prepared to use both QBs. If Allar can’t go, look for the coordinators to give Pribula a bit more passing freedom than he had last week. Just without any high-risk throws being involved, because — frankly — they should not be needed.

It may not be pretty. But neither is the LGT. The Nittany Lions effectively lock up another NY6 bid.

BOLD PREDICTION: In the cozy confines of Ford Field, Penn State kicker Alex Felkins will match or better his career-long field goal of 53 yards (set at Columbia in 2022). This is the same stadium where the Baltimore Ravens’ Justin Tucker hit the longest field goal in NFL history (66 yards) in 2021.

PREDICTION: Penn State 24, Michigan State 10 (PSU -14, 34 total)

TYLER DONOHUE (Lions247 Staff)

The curtain closes on this Big Ten East era with a matchup that has carried conference title implications on occasion. This time around, Penn State is playing for a second straight New Year's Six bowl appearance and one more marquee matchup, while Michigan State is playing for pride at the end of an arduous season.

You have to respect the way this Spartans squad has shown some fight lately, beating Indiana and Nebraska during the last three weeks after a six-game losing streak followed Mel Tucker's firing. But this is a banged-up bunch that faces a significant talent gap against Penn State. It's difficult to forecast what the Nittany Lions' offense will look like in this matchup considering the different styles of QBs in the mix, but I believe the ground game will once again find a rhythm as this game progresses, providing an excellent complement to suffocating defense. This Spartans offense lacks firepower and a game-changer at QB, and it's shorthanded up front, leading to a belief that Penn State's defense is primed to feast on the day after Thanksgiving.

BOLD PREDICTION: Penn State approaches Game 12 ranked second nationally with 24 forced turnovers. The Nittany Lions will make their case to close the regular season atop that list, securing at least four takeaways. After producing 17 points off turnovers versus Rutgers, PSU at least matches that total against Michigan State.

PREDICTION: Penn State 34, Michigan State 7 (PSU -27, 41 total)

DANIEL GALLEN (Lions247 Staff)

No matter who starts at quarterback for Penn State on Friday night, the Nittany Lions should be in good shape. Michigan State has endured a nightmarish season since Mel Tucker’s firing, and the lone Big Ten games where the Spartans were competitive came against Iowa, Rutgers, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana. The only wins were against the Cornhuskers and Hoosiers. Bowl eligibility is off of the table, and Michigan State has an offseason of change ahead of it.

Of course, Penn State hasn’t made things look too easy this season, and while the Nittany Lions are favored by a big number, it might not be pretty. Despite the offensive upheaval and overall disappointment of the season, I think Penn State still knows what it’s playing for entering Saturday. A win likely puts the Nittany Lions into the New Year’s Six, and it gives them an opportunity to close the season on a prominent stage. I think that still means something to the players.

As for whether Drew Allar is healthy enough to play or Beau Pribula makes his first career start, Penn State should be fine with either quarterback under center, and much of that has to do with the supporting case. Running back Kaytron Allen has returned to form over the past four games, while running back Nick Singleton has flashed on a couple runs recently. If Allar starts, then Penn State can feed the running backs. If Pribula starts, then the ground game gets that much more dangerous. Either way, this game has the feeling of a matchup where it’s ugly early but you look up late in the fourth quarter, and the Nittany Lions are leading by three touchdowns.

Penn State can afford to grind it out because the defense is playing lights out. Rutgers was able to take advantage of the quarterback run game, and some impressive throws and catches to move the chains. But the Michigan State offense is a bad unit, and it should provide another opportunity for the Nittany Lions to feast. The Spartans are No. 128 in scoring offense, No. 123 in rushing offense, No. 89 in passing offense and No. 121 in total offense.

It’s going to be a long night for Michigan State, and the Penn State defense will give its offense plenty of opportunities to bump out its margin for a comfortable, albeit unaesthetic, victory.

BOLD PREDICTION: I’m returning to the Detroit well for this one just like I did two weeks ago for Penn State’s game against Michigan: Kalen King intercepts a pass, Kobe King forces a fumble and Jaylen Reed records a tackle for loss in their return to their hometown.

PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Michigan State 9 (PSU -22, 40 total)

TYLER CALVARUSO (Lions247 Recruiting Expert)

Nothing like some Black Friday football to end the regular season. It looks like Drew Allar will be back under center after last weekend's injury scare and I anticipate he'll have more success against Michigan State's defense than he did against Rutgers. MSU has failed to score more than 20 points in more than half of its Big Ten matchups and given the level Manny Diaz's defense has performed at throughout the season, the Nittany Lions should be able to pick up their 10th win without a scare.

PREDICTION: Penn State 34, Michigan State 14 (PSU -20, 48 total)

BRIAN DOHN (247Sports National Recruiting Expert)

Playing in Detroit the day after Thanksgiving against a ready-for-the-season-to-end Michigan State squad does not seem to offer much intrigue, but it is there for Penn State coach James Franklin. Why this game matters is because of the Nittany Lions' quarterback situation. Franklin said Drew Allar is on track to start, but there is intrigue because backup Beau Pribula could get some action after playing a nice chunk of the win against Rutgers.

The Spartans have conference wins against Nebraska and Indiana, but the focus will quickly turn to hiring a new coach and keeping players from heading into the transfer portal while Penn State's motivation is registering a second straight double digit win season.

About the only thing keeping the Nittany Lions from winning this game is too much tryptophan.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Michigan State 10 (PSU -17, 37 total)

STEPHEN BROOKS (SPARTAN TAILGATE — 247Sports MSU Site)

https://247sports.com/college/michigan-state/

MSU is gonna need some help from Penn State to make this one competitive in the second half. Maybe a big play can come from the Spartan secondary, where four of five starters are first- or second-year players. There's a lot of intriguing talent back there between cornerback Chance Rucker, safeties Jaden Mangham and Malik Spencer, and the now-injured Dillon Tatum, and that group has grown together quite a bit this year. If MSU can somehow keep that unit intact for the next coach, something special could be brewing a year from now. For now, they're still a bit raw and underdeveloped physically, but talented enough to make a play or two that could make things interesting.

PREDICTION: Penn State 34, Michigan State 13 (PSU -21, 47 total)

CONTRIBUTORS

KEITH “GOON” CONLIN (Former Player)

Little spunk out of Senior Day for Sparty, but it'll turn ugly quick. Penn State RUNS away with it Friday night. Good season. Hoping for a New Year’s Six bowl against a NAME opponent. Tulane just doesn't do it for me, personally. A win in the Peach Bowl would make Penn State the first team to win all six major bowls (along with previous victories in the Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar and Rose).

PREDICTION: Penn State 40, Michigan State 17 (PSU -23, 57 total)

ED001 (Special Guest)

The Nittany Lions look for their 10th win in a season that will be a disappointment to many. Will Drew Allar be healthy, and if so can he find any open receivers? If not will we see Beau Pribula actually throw the ball downfield or will he continue to be a run-first quarterback? Will this be Manny Diaz’s final game as the defensive coordinator? Chop Robinson in his last game in a Penn State uniform goes out on a high note as the Lions’ defense smothers the Spartans.

PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Michigan State 10 (PSU -21, 41 total)

MARK HARRINGTON (PlaybookMark)

Despite the question about the quarterback position, Penn State has the talent, depth and motivational edge in this game. Regardless of who plays at QB, the run game should lead the charge, with the defense picking up where it left off against Rutgers. Overall, the Lions are well-positioned to get to 10 wins and a NY6 bowl bid.

PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Michigan State 13 (PSU -18, 44 total)

SCOTT COLE (Psu96)

The Spartans program has been in turmoil all season but to their players' credit, they have won 2 games in a row down the stretch. With Drew Allar's availability not 100 percent certain for Friday, we may get a chance to see what Beau Pribula can do with a full week to prepare as the starter. I think the Penn State defense will do enough to will the Nittany Lions to victory and a likely NY6 bowl bid.

PREDICTION: Penn State 24, Michigan State 13 (PSU -11, 37 total)

TOM HOFFMAN (underscoreTom)

Michigan State tends to play Penn State tough no matter what kind of team the Spartans have. Even last season the Lions needed a fourth-quarter surge to make the score look comfortable. This year should be no different. The neutral site adds a new dimension, as well as Drew Allar's health. MSU can't make a bowl game this year, but it can still make it a challenge for PSU to clinch a NY6 berth.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Michigan State 21 (PSU -6, 48 total)

DONOVAN NEAL (PSUMtnBike)

It is difficult to imagine this underdog Michigan State team giving Penn State too many fits. This matchup feels like a game where the Nittany Lion defense and special teams will score some points.

PREDICTION: Penn State 3

NIRAV DALAL (PlaybookNirav)

Sparty picked up a really nice late win over Indiana last weekend, but there are two facts that can’t be avoided — they’ve only crossed the 20-point threshold twice against Big Ten opponents and scored a total of three points against Ohio State and Michigan. Regardless of who lines up under (or behind) center for Penn State, it won’t take many points to win at Ford Field.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Michigan State 3 (PSU -24, 30 total)

ROB RIVA (rriva)

Penn State is playing for its second consecutive 10-win season and New Year’s Six bowl game, while Michigan State is probably trying to forget about the 2023 season based on on-field and off-field issues. Until shown otherwise, I will expect the Nittany Lions to start out slow only to pull away in the second half.

PREDICTION: Penn State 29, Michigan State 9 (PSU -20, 38 total)

RECAP

LIONS247 / 247SPORTS STAFF

BRENNAN: Penn State 24, Michigan State 10 (PSU -14, 34 total)

DONOHUE: Penn State 34, Michigan State 7 (PSU -27, 41 total)

GALLEN: Penn State 31, Michigan State 9 (PSU -22, 40 total)

CALVARUSO: Penn State 34, Michigan State 14 (PSU -20, 48 total)

DOHN: Penn State 27, Michigan State 10 (PSU -17, 37 total

BROOKS: Penn State 34, Michigan State 13 (PSU -21, 47 total)

STAFF AVERAGES: Penn State 30.7, Michigan State 10.5 (PSU -20.2, 41.2 total)

CONTRIBUTORS

GOON: Penn State 40, Michigan State 17 (PSU -23, 57 total)

ED: Penn State 31, Michigan State 10 (PSU -21, 41 total)

HARRINGTON: Penn State 31, Michigan State 13 (PSU -18, 44 total)

COLE: Penn State 24, Michigan State 13 (PSU -11, 37 total)

HOFFMAN: Penn State 27, Michigan State 21 (PSU -6, 48 total)

NEAL: Penn State 34, Michigan State 9 (PSU -25, 43 total)

DALAL: Penn State 27, Michigan State 3 (PSU -24, 30 total)

RIVA: Penn State 29, Michigan State 9 (PSU -20, 38 total)

CONTRIBUTOR AVERAGES: Penn State 30.4, Michigan State 11.9 (PSU -18.1, 42.3 total)

OVERALL AVERAGES: Penn State 30.5, Michigan State 11.3 (PSU -19.2, 41.8 total)

FAST FACTS

Picked Penn State: Everybody

Picked Michigan: Nobody

Widest Margin For Penn State: Donohue (PSU -27)

Caesars Sportsbook Line (Nov. 20): Penn State -21.0

Picked Penn State To Cover: Donohue, Gallen, Goon, Neal, Dalal

Picked Penn State NOT To Cover: Brennan, Calvaruso, Dohn Harrington, Cole, Hoffman, Riva

Push: Brooks, Ed

Caesars Sportsbook Total (Nov. 20): 42.5

Highest Total: Goon (57)

Lowest Total: Dalal (30)

Over: Calvaruso, Brooks, Goon, Harrington, Hoffman, Neal

Under: Brennan, Donohue, Gallen, Dohn, Ed, Cole, Dalal, Riva

Push: NA

LAST WEEK

Caesars Sportsbook Line (Nov. 14): Penn State -20.5

Actual Spread: Penn State 27, Rutgers 6 (PSU -21)

Winners Against The Spread: Brennan, Dohn, Ed, Harrington, Cole, Hoffman, Dalal, Riva

Losers Against The Spread: Donohue, Gallen, Calvaruso, Hellman, Goon, Neal

Push: NA

Caesars Sportsbook Total (Nov. 14): 41.5

Actual Total: 33 (Under)

Winners Against The Total: Donohue, Gallen, Calvaruso, Dohn, Goon. Neal, Dalal, Riva

Losers Against The Total: Brennan, Hellman, Ed, Harrington, Cole, Hoffman

Push: NA

STANDINGS

MONEY LINE (ALPHABETICAL)

Dohn: 11-0

Hoffman: 11-0

Brennan: 10-1

Calvaruso: 10-1

Cole: 10-1

Dalal: 10-1

Donohue: 10-1

Harrington: 10-1

Neal: 10-1

Riva: 10-1

Visiting Media: 10-1

Ed: 9-2

Gallen: 9-2

Goon: 9-2

AGAINST THE SPREAD (ALPHABETICAL)