Browns vs. Seahawks Prediction, Picks, Odds Today: Can Myles Garrett Get to Geno Smith?

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29 October 2023

Browns vs. Seahawks Prediction, Picks, Odds Today: Can Myles Garrett Get to Geno Smith?

With Deshaun Watson out again for Week 8, it looks like it will be up to the Cleveland Browns defense (No. 1 in total yards allowed) to carry the load again. But will the Seattle Seahawks be able to come up with just enough offense to get the win at home? Here’s a look at the matchup.

Browns vs. Seahawks Betting Lines, Start Time, and More

Spread: Seahawks -3.5
Moneyline: Browns (+154), Seahawks (-185)
Over/Under: 38
Game time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Location: Lumen Field
Channel: FOX

Browns vs. Seahawks Prediction

For what seems like the billionth week in a row, the Browns head into a matchup all banged up. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is out, and veteran PJ Walker, off of the 50% completion percentage, zero touchdowns to three interceptions, and the passer rating of 48.2 this season, will take over under center.

Say good night, Cleveland, right? Not necessarily.

The Browns still have the league’s best defense, even after last week’s debacle against the Colts. Cleveland allowed season highs in yards (456) and points (38) in Indianapolis. This came after the Browns did not allow 300 yards in their first five games.

Overall, Cleveland has allowed just 1,458 total yards this season, becoming just the eighth team since 2005 to allow fewer than 1,500 yards in its first six games of a season. The previous seven teams finished with 11+ wins and made the playoffs that season.

The Browns will be facing a much healthier team, however, especially on the offensive end. The Seahawks are still having issues in the red zone — just two touchdowns on eight red-zone drives since Week 6 — and are making too many mistakes lately.

Seattle has five turnovers combined over its last two games — this after committing just one turnover in its first four games.

Geno Smith — three interceptions in his last two games — needs to get back on track, and the return of DK Metcalf should probably help. Metcalf missed last week’s game with Arizona with hip and rib injuries.

Running back Kenneth Walker III is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season (105 yards on a season-high 26 carries), but he was kept out of the end zone for the first time since Week 1.

Still, the Seahawks offense has stagnated since their return from the bye week. They have scored 20 or fewer points in their two games since the bye after being held under 20 points once in their first four games (the season opener vs. the Rams).

The magic number for the Seahawks so far has been 20. When they score 20 or more points, they are 4-0, but when held under 20 points, they are 0-2.

If you believe in spread numbers, the Browns are not in a good spot here. Cleveland is 0-3 against the spread this season following a straight-up win, and it is 0-2 ATS away from home.

As for Seattle, after going 1-5 against the spread as a favorite last season, it is 3-1 ATS as a favorite so far.

Despite all this, I’m going to take the points here. While the Seahawks are the healthier group — by a wide margin — Cleveland has been able to get by just fine the last two weeks without a healthy lineup.

And if you take a closer look at the Seahawks’ record, you’ll notice that since beating the Lions in Week 2, their last three wins have come against the 0-6 Panthers, the 2-5 Giants, and the 1-6 Cardinals. That’s a combined 3-17 record for those three opponents.

It’s not exactly a who’s who of football excellence.

The Browns are proving to be a resilient team, something you certainly need to survive in the AFC North Division.

I’ll take more than a field goal here.

Best Bet: Browns +3.5 (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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