Dodgers vs. Mets Picks, Predictions & Odds

sportsbookreview.com

13 July 2023

Major League Baseball exits the All-Star break with a number of exciting matchups, but perhaps none offer more potential for fireworks than a series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets. Read on for our Dodgers vs. Mets picks based on the best MLB odds.

The New York Mets have been one of the most underwhelming teams in baseball this season, sitting fourth in the NL East with a 42-48 record and minus-three run differential. New York also owns one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball, as its 2.7 fWAR is the third-worst in the league.

On the other hand, Los Angeles looks very Dodgers-like after a relatively slow start to the season. It's now tied for first in the NL West and ranks fourth in hitter fWAR and wRC+. The lineup remains fairly top-heavy, but it appears the Dodgers will once again serve as the standard in the division.

However, the All-Star break provided teams with a chance to hit the refresh button. Will the Mets take advantage of the time off and use the restart as an opportunity to turn their season around? Or will they continue to disappoint?

Here is our best Dodgers vs. Mets pick for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dodgers vs. Mets pick

Mets moneyline (+110 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐

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Up to a $500 Second Chance Bet

I don't have a ton of faith in either Justin Verlander or Julio Urias, the two starting pitchers in Friday's contest. Both are experiencing a ton of regression after unsustainably incredible 2022 seasons (Verlander won the AL Cy Young Award with the Houston Astros and Urias finished third in the NL). Their projections via Ballpark Pal for Friday's matchup are fairly similar, too.

Therefore, we're making this bet with the expectation that the Mets will bounce back from their awful first half with a home win against the Dodgers.

Due to the fact that the game is still more than 24 hours away, there's been little line movement to influence our pick. Most of our best sports betting apps opened with the Mets at +105 on the moneyline, and a number of them remain there. So we'll take the additional five points of value at BetRivers, which opened with New York as a +110 underdog.

This is only a two-star bet since we're still working off of relatively limited information. If you're looking for a slight edge, the Mets are 20-19 at home this season compared to 22-29 on the road. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 22-22 away from home.

Verlander is likely the superior pitcher in this matchup, New York needs to start strong if it hopes to make the playoffs, and we're getting a bit of value relative to the odds at our other best sports betting sites. You could certainly do worse.

Dodgers vs. Mets best odds

BetRivers (+110)

Four of our best sportsbooks are offering this game the day before the first pitch, with PointsBet pulling it from its offerings.

As previously mentioned, most sportsbooks have the Mets as +105 underdogs, making our price at BetRivers slightly more valuable.

Dodgers vs. Mets odds

Dodgers vs. Mets odds analysis

Betting splits for this matchup will still be relatively misleading, as the majority of the action is sure to come Friday morning and afternoon. However, we can see from the early action on this matchup that bettors are relatively split between the two teams, as 46% of ML bets are on the Mets.

The total has experienced much more one-sided action, as it opened at 8 at most sportsbooks and has been pushed to 8.5 thanks to 62% of the bets coming in on the Over.