Peterson Looks to Reverse Fortunes on Sunday Night Baseball

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02 July 2023

Peterson Looks to Reverse Fortunes on Sunday Night Baseball

The New York Mets have been an abomination thus far in 2023. Will July represent the beginning of their climb back up the standings? Find out with our San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets prediction based on the best MLB odds.

After continuing their offseason spending spree under team owner Steve Cohen, the Mets are 18 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East entering Sunday. Can they begin to ascend back to where many expected them to finish? Or is this essentially a lost season?

Meanwhile, the Giants are in the thick of the NL West race, sitting only 3 1/2 games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks entering Sunday's action. San Fran remains one of the most competitive clubs in baseball despite playing in a division featuring two of the league's biggest spenders.

Who will come out on top in the final game of this three-game set?

Here is our best Giants vs. Mets pick (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Giants vs. Mets pick

David Peterson Under 5.5 strikeouts (-134 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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This game doesn't offer a ton of enticing bets, and even this prop feels somewhat tricky to accurately handicap.

Peterson has done two things above average this season: strike out opposing batters and give up home runs. The Giants strike out at the fourth-highest rate in the majors entering Sunday's action, but they've also swatted the 10th-most long balls and scored the ninth-most runs.

Additionally, Ballpark Pal prices Under 5.5 strikeouts for Peterson at +138, so this pick goes against one of the biggest tools I use to find value in MLB props. However, there are a couple of reasons why I'm going against that projected price and riding with this pick.

NumberFire projects Peterson to finish with 4.79 strikeouts on Sunday. That total comes from 5.24 projected innings, meaning NumberFire has more or less accounted for Peterson having a relatively long start with its numbers - he's cleared that inning total only three times this season.

The second data point we'll use to make this pick is the way in which this total has moved throughout Sunday.

Most of our best sports betting apps opened Peterson's strikeout total at 4.5. At Pinnacle, Over 4.5 steamed all the way to -204 before significant buy-back on the Under pushed those odds back to -144. We've seen similar movement at a number of our best sports betting sites.

FanDuel opened at 5.5 with the Under priced at -122 (it now obviously sits at -134). We've even seen some buy-back on Under 4.5 at some of our other best sportsbooks, including DraftKings, which is offering Under 4.5 at +130 after being as long as +160 earlier in the day.

By playing Under 5.5 (-134) at FanDuel, we're getting the best value on a Peterson strikeout prop, as it offers +13.78% expected value. That's slightly better than the +13.53% you'd get by playing Under 4.5 (+135) at DraftKings.

It's only a three-star bet because Ballpark Pal's simulations don't support playing this number, but the combination of NumberFire's projection and sharp action help us determine that Under 5.5 at -134 with FanDuel is among the best bets for Sunday's Giants vs. Mets game.

Giants vs. Mets best odds

FanDuel (-134)

As mentioned, we're getting a slight edge by playing FanDuel's number compared to DraftKings', which offers the second-best value at its +135 price on Under 4.5.

Among our other best sportsbooks, you should avoid Caesars when betting on Peterson's strikeout prop, as it doesn't offer much value on either the Over or Under.

BetMGM and PointsBet still offer competitive prices on 4.5 and 5.5, respectively, though each is less optimal than playing either Over or Under those numbers at either DraftKings or FanDuel.

Giants vs. Mets odds

Giants vs. Mets odds analysis

The Mets are small favorites on Sunday night, encouraging the slight majority of bettors to back the underdog Giants. Around 55% of moneyline bets are on San Francisco. Those looking to bet on the away team should head to DraftKings, as it lists the Giants at +100 while FanDuel, BetMGM, and PointsBet all have them at minus money.

As far as the total goes, bettors are expecting a relatively high-scoring game with two mediocre starting pitchers on the mound. Approximately 64% of bets on the total back the Over, which is set at 9.0 at our best sportsbooks.