Bills vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Monday Night Football

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11 September 2023

Bills vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Monday Night Football

The first Monday Night Football game of the 2023 NFL season features the two teams expected to be battling for the AFC East crown all season as we explore our best Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets predictions for Week 1.

The fight for the AFC East divisional crown has a new horse in the race as Aaron Rodgers now leads a New York Jets team looking to dethrone the Buffalo Bills.

We've already explored the quarterback battle with our Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers player props and have our Bills vs. Jets SGP picks for a boosted payday, but we're focusing on the actual game outcome with our Bills vs. Jets prediction via the odds from ourbest NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Jets prediction: Monday Night Football

Jets ML (+125 via BetRivers,bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

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It can't be overstated how much of aloss edge rusher Von Miller is for the Bills' defense, as he begins the year on the PUPlist. Buffalo’s four-man pass rush from Weeks 1-11 ranked sixth in pressurepercentage and 10th in sack percentage, while from Week 12 through theDivisional Round, it was 19th in pressure percentage and 20th in sackpercentage.

Miller tore his ACL inWeek 12. He produced the highest Pass Rush Win Rate of any Bills defender in 2023 (23.6%, ranked 7th), while no other Bills player was higher than a 13.5%Pass Rush Win Rate or ranked better than 53rd in that metric (Buffalo had justfour players ranked in the top-115).

If the Bills can't generate aconsistent pass rush against Rodgers, he should be successful in his Jetsdebut. When pressured over the last three seasons, Rodgers ranks 21st in QBR,25th in completion percentage, and 27th in first-down percentage. When notpressured, he's second in QBR, fourth incompletion percentage, and fourth in first-down percentage. The Jets were21st in Pass Block Win Rate (57%) in 2022, but injuries played a big part, as they had six different starting offensive tackles, an NFL most.

New York's defense ranked fourth inpoints per game, second in yards per play, and eighth in Total QBR allowed.With Buffalo starting three new offensive linemen at left guard, right guard,and right tackle, keeping the Jets out of the backfield will be difficult.

In the preseason, the Jets' Dhad a 10.3% sack percentage (2nd-highest) while blitzing 16.9% of the time(3rd-lowest). It had the most preseason sacks of any team (14) andshould continue its high pressured rate with a four-man pass rush from lastseason (pressured QBs on 30% of dropbacks in 2022 with a four-manrush, ranked 6th).

Buffalo has dominated the recent head-to-head matchups, winning five out of the last six meetings. However, New York's sole victory came when Zach Wilson was the starting quarterback last season. Facing Rodgers in the upcoming game will be a significantly tougher challenge for New York.

Our anytime touchdown scorer prediction for Monday explores who Rodgers may target in crunch time.

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Bills vs. Jets best odds

BetRivers, bet365 (+125)

Notmuch separates our best sports betting apps regarding moneyline odds, though somebettors might view the $11 difference between the best odds at DraftKings’ +114 as a significant gap. Jets' backers will likely take the trend that theteam is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games against AFC East opponents with a grain ofsalt, especially since one of those wins was at home against Buffalo last year,and Aaron Rodgers is now quarterback.

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Bills vs. Jets odds for Monday Night Football

All of our best sports betting sites agree with Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite. WhileBetMGM, FanDuel, bet365, and Caesars offer standard juice on either side ofthis spread, DraftKings and BetRivers are at -112 and -113, respectively. Over 66% percent of wagers are on the Bills, a big reason why the line moved up from an opening number of -1.5 at mostshops.

Whilemost of our best sportsbooks landed on a total of 45.5, BetRivers is the onlyshop at 45, with -114 odds to back the Over. FanDuel and Caesars came downconsiderably from highs of 47, while the total at BetMGM and DraftKings peakedat 46.5 before settling at 45.5. The Under cashed in seven of Buffalo’slast eight road games.