Dolphins vs. Patriots odds, prediction, picks: Why Miami will cover spread on MNF
The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots are no strangers to one another as AFC East opponents. Since Tom Brady left the Patriots, New England has won just two of the six matchups vs Miami after dominating the rivalry while number 12 was under center.
Last season saw these teams split the series with Miami winning 20-7 in the first game and New England winning 23-17 in the second. The visiting Dolphins enter this game at 1-0 following a shootout win in Week 1 while the home Patriots are 0-1 after losing by five last week.
This game has a tight three point spread across NFL betting sites in favor of the visitors. While my first instinct was to pick the Patriots to cover the three points, I’ve shifted to being convinced Miami will win by more than three points in an important game for both teams.
Dolphins vs Patriots prediction: Analysis
This game is a classic example of offensive vs defensive coaching philosophies. Mike McDaniel’s offense was the most explosive in the league in Week 1, while Bill Belichick hangs his hat on defense and did a great job slowing down the Eagles last week.
When these teams faced off last year, the Dolphins were without Tua Tagovailoa. The former first round pick was the best quarterback in Week 1 with an astonishing 466 yards and three touchdowns. He was never sacked once and was good on third downs as well.
A huge part of Tagovailoa’s success was due to Tyreek Hill’s absurd after the catch ability. Hill had 215 yards and two touchdowns on 11 catches and will unquestionably be the number one focus of Belichick’s gameplan.
It’s been said many times but usually holds true, but Belichick excels at taking away his opponents’ biggest strength. Jalen Hurts’ mobility was a non-factor against the Pats a week ago and the passing game was also held in check with just 170 yards.
Despite not having the most talented of players, the Patriots played like a well cached and disciplined team a week ago. But how their young secondary will hold up against the likes of Hill and Jaylen Waddle will remain to be seen.
Offensively is where the Patriots could keep this game close, as Miami’s defense gave up 433 yards and struggled to get off the field on third downs. Although it’s hard to imagine Vic Fangio’s defense giving up all of that yardage for a second straight game.
As for New England’s offense, they outgained the Eagles by 132 yards and had an excellent passing day. But the Patriots enter the game with four of their five offensive linemen being questionable due to varying injuries, which is something to track before kickoff.
Dolphins vs Patriots prediction: Pick
Dolphins to cover the -3 spread at FanDuel (-105)
As I mentioned earlier, I initially wanted to pick New England to cover the +3 spread in front of their home fans. But upon seeing New England was 7-9-1 against the spread in 2022 while Miami was 10-8, I began to have a change of heart.
Another reason I was believing in New England was their offense moving the ball with ease on the Eagles last week. But Fangio is one of the few defensive minds in the NFL who can rival Belichick’s defensive acumen, and the mounting injuries on the offensive line concern me.
This game could be kept close if the Patriots get more out of Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot and control the time of possession to limit Miami’s drives. But last week the two running backs ran for just 54 yards on 19 carries.
Tagovailoa has received as much criticism as anyone in the NFL for inconsistent play. But his accuracy last week was super impressive and he was more confident stepping up in the pocket to make difficult throws.
Although I don’t expect him to replicate his near 500 yard performance over the Patriots defense, as long as he plays mistake-free football he can have another great game.
Even though Hill likely won’t replicate his 200 yard and two touchdown statline from Week 1 either, he and Waddle will give the Patriots’ young secondary a fit. McDaniel’s innovative play-calling could also have some surprises Belichick isn’t ready for.
I can see this game ending with a hypothetical score of 24-17, but three points is a surprisingly tight amount given how lethal Miami’s offense was last week.
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