Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 2: Can Pats Contain Tua and Tyreek?

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16 September 2023

Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 2: Can Pats Contain Tua and Tyreek?

No quarterback's numbers in Week 1 were better than theDolphins signal caller Tua Tagovailoa, but some trickery by Patriots coach BillBelichick could slow down the Fish. Read on for our top Dolphins vs. Patriots predictionsbased on the best NFL odds.

TuaTagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins’ offense couldn’t have looked better in Week1, throwing for nearly 500 yards in a wild win at the L.A. Chargers. Meanwhile, theNew England Patriots came off a tough 25-20 home loss to the PhiladelphiaEagles despite holding the defending NFC champions to just three field goals in thesecond half.

Canthe Dolphins put up video game numbers for the second straight week, or willhead coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots put a lid on Miami’s attack and get back to.500?

Hereis our best Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction and NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a1-to-5-star scale).

Dolphins vs.Patriots prediction

Over 46.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

TheDolphins hung 36 points on the Chargers last week, and there was nothingfluky about it. Led by Tagovailoa's 466 passing yards, Miami’s 536 totaloffensive yards was the most by any team in Week 1 since 2019. The Phins also had an appetite for big plays, with zero of their seven scoring drives takingmore than five minutes off the clock — music to an Over backer's ears.

Asmuch as Belichick has a reputation for being a defensive genius, I’mnot sure he can concoct something to shut down Dolphins running back Tyreek Hill and thisMiami attack. He couldn't stop Hill in the past, allowing thespeedster to score six touchdowns in six lifetime matchups versus the Patriots. Hill was in top form last week, hauling in 11 passes for215 yards and two TDs.

Desperateto avoid an 0-2 start, New England knows it must put up points to beatthe Dolphins. Miami’s defense was stout against the run last season butstruggled badly in its first game under new coordinator Vic Fangio,allowing 234 yards and nearly six yards per carry. Meanwhile, Patriots QB Mac Jones threwfor more than 300 yards in his first game in Bill O’Brien’s offense, but fourturnovers prevented New England from scoring more than 20 points versus theEagles.

Thismid-40s total is more based on recent history between these AFC East rivals —four of the last six meetings went Under the total, with just one exceeding 44 points scored. It doesn’t reflect the current reality of both offenses. There's value in the Over all the way up to 48.5.

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Dolphins vs.Patriots best odds

We’velisted DraftKings as the best place to bet the Dolphins-Patriots Over, but youcould find the same 46.5 -110 price at any of the other top best sports betting apps aswell.

Dolphins vs.Patriots odds

Miamiopened as a 2-point favorite and drew immediate betting interest, going up toan expensive -2.5 by the middle of the week and even moving to the key numberof -3 at some shops. Barring injuries, that’s probably as high as itgets before kickoff, even though the public should be eager to back Miami’spotent offense in a prime-time matchup.

Thetotal hadn’t budged at most of the best sports betting sites since opening at 46.5. Toprecommended books like Caesars and BetMGM hadn’t even shaded their juiceone way or the other as of Friday morning.