Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Conference Championships

— Jarod Fox (@JarodF_11) January 21, 2024

49ers (-7)

The 49ers have failed to cover the NFL point spread in any of their past six games at home. Meanwhile, Detroit hasn’t won a road playoff game since 1957, a streak of 11 games. They also haven’t played outdoors very often. In fact, since losing in Baltimore 38-6 on October 22, their only other outdoor road game since, was in Chicago in Week 14 and they lost again 28-13. Every other game has been at home or indoors.

Still, this Lions’ offense was 5th in scoring this season, and their second-ranked run defense will have as good a shot as anyone of containing Christian McCaffrey.

But the Lions’ pass defense can be exploited. Last week Baker Mayfield threw for 349 yards. The week prior Matthew Stafford had 367. Before that it was Nick Mullens with 396, Dak Prescott with 345 and then Mullens again with 411. Over that time in the past five weeks, Detroit has allowed the highest yards per play in the league.

The Lions have plenty of weapons on offense and should put up some points, but they’ve also allowed 20+ points in five straight games and also in 10/11 and that defense will be their undoing here.

Bob Duff

Lions (+7.5)

You have to go all the way back to 1957 to find an NFL postseason in which the Detroit Lions won two games. That’s also the most recent season in which the Lions won an NFL title, so the omens are aligning quite nicely in the Motor City.

While it’s true that Detroit has lost 11 consecutive NFL playoff games on the road, it’s also true that the last time the Lions were victorious in an away postseason contest was in that championship season of 1957. They were 31-27 winners at San Francisco in a playoff for the West Division title.

Tobin Rote was the Lions QB in that game, while it was YA Tittle under center for the Niners. YA stood for Yelberton Abraham. That has nothing to do with the outcome of this game. It’s just fun to write.

Overall, Detroit has lost 13 in a row at San Francisco since a 28-17 verdict in 1975. But this season’s edition of the Lions is 7-2 ATS as a road team. Meanwhile, the Super Bowl favorite 49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.

Chiefs (+4)

There’s also an interesting dynamic at work in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs never won a conference championship game on the road. Baltimore has never played a conference championship game at home.

Kansas City is 3-2 ATS over the past five AFC title games. The Chiefs are 5-3-1 ATS as an away team this season.

Baltimore is 6-4 ATS as a home team. The Ravens are 6-2 ATS over the past eight games. One of those ATS losses was a week 18 game against Pittsburgh in which Baltimore rested many starters.

The Ravens and Chiefs are 2-2 ATS in four meetings with Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson facing Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes in the QB matchup. Jackson is 0-1 ATS when favored over Mahomes.

— Fanatics Sportsbook | PB (@fanaticsbook_pb) January 22, 2024

Zach Reger

Chiefs (+4)

The Ravens have looked like the best team in the NFL for a while now, but Patrick Mahomes is an underdog yet again. Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career now and is 8-3 straight up.

The Chiefs have a strong defense and have the talent and defensive coordinator to limit Lamar Jackson and company. Isiah Pacheco has been running well, so this game should come down to the wire. I like getting over a field goal with Kansas City in the playoffs.

49ers (-7)

The 49ers escaped a scare last week against the Packers, so now they can breathe. Even though this game is more important than last week’s, San Francisco felt the pressure early on, so I expect them to be more relaxed and right the ship against Detroit.

The Lions have been an awesome story, but now they are going on the road to play the best team in the NFC. Detroit will fight, but the 49ers should take care of business and get to the Super Bowl.