Gane vs Spivac Prediction & Picks (UFC Paris): Potential Upset Alert

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29 August 2023

Gane vs Spivac Prediction & Picks (UFC Paris): Potential Upset Alert

It’s Fight Night week in the City of Lights as UFC Paris goes down on Saturday, Sept. 2. After analyzing the full card yesterday, it’s time to take a look at the huge main event between ex-interim UFC Heavyweight Champion Ciryl Gane and the red-hot Serghei Spivac.

Gane and Spivac enter this fight as two of the heavyweight division’s most respected competitors. France’s Gane heads into the weekend as the UFC’s second-ranked heavyweight while Spivac isn’t too far down the line at No. 7.

Regardless of who wins, this bout has future title implications.

With Saturday rapidly approaching, this article addresses all of your Gane vs Spivac betting needs. Continue reading to check out the latest odds, predictions, and best bets for the UFC Paris main event.

Gane vs Spivac Tale of the Tape

Ciryl Gane — Serghei Spivac

Record: 11-2 — 16-3
Height: 6’4” — 6’3”
Reach: 81” — 78”
Weight: 245 lbs — 260 lbs
Age: 33 — 28
Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
Knockouts: 5 — 7

Gane vs Spivac (as of Tuesday, August 29 at 9:19 a.m. via BetOnline)

Moneyline

Ciryl Gane (-160)
Serghei Spivac (+140)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 2.5 Rounds (+132)
Under 2.5 Rounds (-162)

Gane vs Spivac Preview UFC Paris

A glance at the above Gane vs Spivac odds reveals who’s the main event favorite heading into Paris. BetOnline is currently favoring Gane at -160 odds to be victorious in his home country, which carries an implied win probability of 61.5%.

Gane is one of the most dangerous heavyweights today, highlighted by a 72.7% finish percentage in his victories. His versatility has given him the edge over the majority of his opponents, proving that he can end a fight by either knockout or submission at a moment’s notice.

“Bon Gamin” rattled off 10 consecutive victories to begin his MMA career, capturing the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship by defeating Derrick Lewis via TKO in his tenth bout.

Unfortunately, Gane’s undefeated run ended in the subsequent fight with a unanimous decision loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 270.

While he bounced back by knocking Tai Tuivasa eight months later, Gane most recently lost again back in March with a first-round submission loss to Jon Jones, failing to capture the vacant heavyweight gold in the process.

As impressive as Gane is, Spivac shouldn’t be overlooked as the underdog.

The 6-foot-3, 260-pound Moldovan brawler has made a name for himself with 14 finishes (seven via KO/TKO, seven via submission) in his first 19 fights. Although he’s never held UFC gold, he is a former WWFC Heavyweight Champion with a pair of successful defenses under his belt.

After a slow start to his UFC run, Spivac has an impressive 6-1 record in his last seven fights. He’s won each of his last three outings by some form of finish, TKO’ing both Greg Hardy and Augusto Sakai before most recently submitting Lewis at UFC Vegas 68.

Spivac is also five years younger and 15 pounds heavier than his opponent, giving him an advantage in those departments. On the flip side, Gane is an inch taller with a three-inch reach advantage.

Striking-wise, Gane lands more significant strikes per minute (5.08 vs. 3.79) with better accuracy (59% vs. 51%). Nevertheless, Spivac is the superior grappler, averaging 5.05 takedowns (with 65% accuracy) and 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes.

UFC Paris: Gane vs Spivac Betting Trends and Markets

There isn’t anything wrong with betting on the Gane vs Spivac moneyline. After all, a $100 on Gane to win would produce a $162.50 payout while the same wager on a Spivac victory would lead to $240.

However, if you want the chance to win more than that, BetOnline has you covered with a wide variety of markets ahead of the UFC Paris main event.

When it comes to a victory method, Gane is favored to win via KO/TO at +125 odds. It isn’t too surprising to see a knockout finish predicted considering how BetOnline is also listing that the fight won’t go the distance at -350 odds.

Nevertheless, Gane has picked up five knockout victories over the years with his last two wins coming via KO/TKO. On top of that, Spivac has been knocked out twice in his career.

Meanwhile, Spivac’s top victory method is a submission win (+400). It’s an interesting option given that Gane was submitted by Jones in his latest outing and now has to face Spivac, who’s coming off his submission victory over Lewis, which also earned him the ‘performance of the night.’

If you’re trying to pinpoint when the UFC Paris headliner ends, Gane is favored to win with a first-round knockout (+600). Having said that, only one of his five previous KO/TKO wins occurred in the opening frame.

Gane vs Spivac Prediction & Picks for UFC Paris

Even though I can see Gane winning, I like the idea of a Spivac upset. The Moldovan combatant is a tremendous wrestler who can end things quickly if he can land some early takedowns. Considering how Gane was taken down twice in about two minutes by Jones, I expect that the French crowd will be left disappointed this weekend.

At +160 odds, I don’t have an issue taking Spivac outright, however, I also like the idea of a submission win (+400). Again, he’s a dangerous grappler with seven career submission wins to his name and after Gane was easily handled in his last outing, I see Spivac submitting a foe for the eighth time.