Grand National Weights: Timeform's View

Timeform chase handicapper Phil Turner reveals Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National and highlights a few on his shortlist at this early stage.

Delta Work tops the Timeform ratings for the 2023 Grand National following this afternoon’s weights launch for the Aintree showpiece on April 15.

The ten-year-old will be bidding to provide trainer Gordon Elliott with a fourth National win following on from Silver Birch (2007) and Tiger Roll (2018 & 2019), whilst the latter’s owners Gigginstown House Stud are also hunting a fourth win having previously landed the jackpot with the Mouse Morris-trained Rule The World in 2016.

Last year’s third Delta Work will be bidding to emulate 2004 victor Amberleigh House, who was the last horse to win the race 12 months on from finishing third, whilst you have to go all the way back to Red Alligator in 1968 to find the next previous example of this.

“As those historical statistics suggest, the task for placed horses is usually much stiffer the following year as the BHA handicapper tends to hit them nearly as hard as the winner,” explained Timeform chase handicapper Phil Turner.

“By contrast, Delta Work has been eased to a BHA mark of 159, which must be viewed as potentially lenient for a horse with no less than five Grade 1 chase wins on his CV. Admittedly, he may struggle to mix it at that exalted level nowadays, but he’s taken very well to the new discipline of cross-country chasing and his experience of the Grand National course last year won’t be lost on him. All in all, he looks a worthy successor to his same connections’ Tiger Roll.”

Elliott has entered eighteen other horses - nine of which are also owned by Gigginstown (including the first three from Sunday’s Punchestown Grand National Trial, Coko Beach, Death Duty and Defi Bleu) – and clearly has plenty of other possible live contenders.

“Galvin has long appealed as a Grand National type but, unlike Delta Work, he’s been left on a BHA mark in the mid-160s despite having had his limitations exposed a bit at Grade 1 level this winter. Instead, the lightly-raced Pencilfulloflead is the other Elliott runner who currently makes the most appeal from a ratings viewpoint.”

Irish-trained horses have dominated the last two editions of the race, being responsible for seven of the first nine home last year and ten of the first 11 in 2021. That balance of power is reflected towards the head of the 2023 weights, with only two British-trained runners making it into the top 20 highest-weighted horses.

Last year’s hero Noble Yeats figures towards the top of that 20 and it’s certainly not out the question he’ll add his name to the likes of Reynoldstown, Red Rum and Tiger Roll as a back-to-back winner – indeed, he’s progressed so well this winter that he’s 1lb ahead of 2022 runner-up Any Second Now on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings despite the fact he’s significantly worse off with that rival this time around.

That said, although the home-trained challenge may be lacking in quantity it isn’t without quality. Three of the principals from Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup – Le Milos, Remastered and Corach Rambler - figure highly on Timeform ratings, whilst Rehearsal Chase third Happygolucky seems to have been discarded prematurely by ante-post punters on the back of one disappointing run over an inadequate trip.

“Le Milos makes the most appeal of that quartet as he looks to have all the right attributes to develop into an Aintree horse,” Turner said. “He would definitely join Delta Work on my shortlist at this stage, whilst the Irish-trained pair Mr Incredible and Vanillier are others who catch the eye at bigger odds. As ever, however, a lot can change between now and April 15!”

Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings for 2023 Grand National

182 DELTA WORK

181p LE MILOS

180 AIN’T THAT A SHAME

180 FURY ROAD

180 VANILLIER

179p CORACH RAMBLER

179p GA LAW

179 ASHTOWN LAD

179 GAILLARD DU MESNIL

179 MR INCREDIBLE

178 CAPODANNO

178 HAPPYGOLUCKY

178 OUR POWER

178 PENCILFULLOFLEAD

178x THE BIG BREAKAWAY

Selected others

177 NOBLE YEATS

177 QUICK WAVE

177 REMASTERED

176 ANY SECOND NOW

176 LONGHOUSE POET