How to bet £20 ante-post on the Irish Grand National
Angels Dawn was a fluent winner at the Cheltenham Festival and looks overpriced at 20-1 to win the Boylesports Irish Grand National on Monday week (April 10).
The Sam Curling-trained mare is a novice on the up and showed plenty of the attributes needed to win the 3m 5f Fairyhouse feature when landing the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase this month.
She did most of her work on the bridle that day before showing a good attitude to repel Stumptown, the hot favourite, by a neck. The form looks rock-solid with Mr Incredible, the Classic Chase runner-up, back in third and Dunboyne, who had previously been edged out in the Thyestes Chase, beaten a total of 13 lengths in fourth.
Angels Dawn had previously looked on course for victory in the 3m 4f Grand National Trial at Punchestown, only for Cian Quirke to be unseated two out. Before that, the same combination had clicked at Down Royal.
The form of Angels Dawn's win at Cheltenham looks strong
Fears that Angels Dawn wouldn’t make the cut for the Irish National after her win at Cheltenham (safety limit of 30) have proved unfounded as she’s 34th on the list and all but guaranteed a run with numerous runners above her also engaged in the Randox Grand National, run six days later, or having other options.
She’s set to run off a mark of 138, which is 7lb higher than at Cheltenham. That looks fair enough, not least because the daughter of Yeats is open to more improvement after only six runs over fences.Five of the past seven winners of the race have been rated between 136 and 139, so she fits nicely into that bracket, too.
It would also be no surprise if connections reunited her with Quirke, provided he is back in action by then. He’s been on the sidelines for a month but looks excellent value for his 7lb claim. Conditional jockeys can tilt the scales in the race, with five successful since 2009.
Unlike many in the field, she has no other forthcoming entries, and it must be odds-on that she will have less than 11st to carry, which has become something of a necessity in the Easter highlight.
Only one horse in the past 20 years has carried more than 10st 13lb to victory (Our Duke in 2017) and the stats for those burdened with 11st or more since 2001 make for grim reading. From 97 runners, Our Duke is the sole winner and only six others have made the first four.
There's no way she will go off at 20-1 on the day provided she stands her ground.
I was also considering each-way plays on Stumptown and Dunboyne, as the Kim Muir form has a glow and the pair would both get decent pulls in the weights with Angels Dawn.
However, Stumptown seems unlikely to get a run – he’s languishing at 54th in the list – and connections of Dunboyne may be tempted to wait a week and instead head to Aintree, as he seems likely to sneak in at the foot of the weights.
I’ll be monitoring that pair, plus the Henry de Bromhead-trained Ain’t That A Shame, who definitely has a big prize in him off a mark of 146. Like so many, though, he is also in at Aintree and you’d imagine that is his most likely destination.
In the meantime, I’m also happy to have an each-way wager on Max Flamingo, who seems suited by the demands of Fairyhouse; has no other engagements and is chalked up at 33-1.
Given he raced quite keenly and met a few traffic problems in the straight, he was far from disgraced when seventh as a novice in last year’s renewal – keeping on to be beaten around eight lengths. Watch a full replay of the race, above.
We’ve not seen him over a fence since October but his latest effort, in a 3m handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, was not without encouragement and will have kept him ticking over.
He’s going to line up a lot fresher than 12 months ago, plus 2lb lower in the weights. In addition, trainer Francis Casey has the option of utilising the 5lb claim of Patrick O’Hanlon. He has partnered Max Flamingo on numerous occasions, but Casey opted for the more senior Denis O'Regan in last year’s Irish National.
It would also be remiss not to mention that Dermot McLoughlin is seeking a remarkable third successive win in the race after the shock victories of Freewheelin Dylan (150-1) and Lord Lariat (40-1) in the past two renewals.McLoughlin may not be a household name, but he has won the race as many times as Willie Mullins, gordon Elliott and De Bromhead put together.
Lord Lariat could be back to defend is crown, but he’s 9lb higher than last year and shown little since. McLoughlin’s other possible, The Echo Boy, is the lowest weighted of the 64 horses still engaged.
How to bet £20 ante-post on the Irish Grand National
£6 win and £4 each-way on Angels Dawn at 20-1 with bet365 and Unibet
£3 each-way on Max Flamingo at 33-1 with William Hill and Unibet
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