Irish Grand National each-way tips: Trends point to Stumptown and Champagne Platinum
Our horse racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach has run his popular trends analysis over the Irish Grand National to narrow down the 33-runner field to a handful of best-value tips.
2023-04-09Irish Grand National each-way tips: Trends point to Stumptown and Champagne Platinum
The Irish National is the feature race of a tasty eight-race card at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday.
Over the years, the race has produced some very big-priced winners, including Lord Lariat last year at 40/1, Freewheelin Dylan 150/1 in 2021 and another eight winners over 20/1 since 2006.
The fact that the favourite at the time of writing is Thedevilscoachman at 8/1 is an indication of how wide open this renewal is likely to be.
I have used the trends below to try and pinpoint likely winners:
- 18/19 - Carried less than 11st
- 18/19 - Won over at least three miles
- 17/19 - Raced within the last eight weeks.
- 16/19 - Winning distance - five lengths or less
- 16/19 - Carried less than 10st 9lb
- 16/19 - Aged under 10 years old
- 15/19 - Irish bred
- 15/19 - Came from outside the top three in the betting.
- 15/19 - Returned a double-figure price or bigger.
- 15/19 - Won by an Irish-based trainer.
- 13/19 - Carried 10st-6lb or less.
- 13/19 - Had raced at Fairyhouse previously.
- 11/19 - Unplaced favourites
- 10/19 - Finished fourth or better last time out.
- 10/19 - Had raced within the last four weeks.
- 8/19 - Rated between 130-136
After going through this long list of trends the field of 33 was reduced to only three horses: Angels Dawn, Stumptown and Champagne Platinum.
Looking at the trends at first glance we are looking for an improving sort, a recent run, reasonably light weight with course experience and a win north of three miles.
The first two in my narrowed-down list finished first and second in the Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham for amateur riders and Angels Dawn now has a nine-pound penalty as a result.
I like races where you see a few horses come out of it to compete again and Stumptown has an advantage at the weights now with Angels Dawn having to carry that extra weight.
Angels Dawn is progressive with two wins in his last three runs, while the outing that came between the wins saw her unseat her rider when going well three fences out in the Punchestown Grand National trial back in February. Her trainer thinks she is a Grand National horse of the future and is still learning at present.
Stumptown was staying on in the Kim Muir and just failed to catch Angels Dawn and the seventeen-pound pull at the weights should see him finish in front of the mare. He remains relatively unexposed, which is the ideal type for this race.
Champagne Platinum is one of several runners owned by JP McManus and has run in this race before. He was only nine lengths behind last year's winner Lord Lariat, finishing eighth despite being hampered by a faller at the first and being short of room in the run-in, so could improve for a clearer run this time. He looks overpriced here and generally jumps soundly and his handicap mark looks fair.
I am loath to leave out Angels Dawn as she has more improvement to come, but her penalty has put me off.
The advice based on the trends is to back Stumptown and Champagne Platinum each-way and look around for bookmakers offering additional places.
At the time of writing, they are a best-priced 10/1 and 50/1 respectively with most bookmakers offering at least six places.
