Jaguars Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Jacksonville
The Jacksonville Jaguars won a playoff game last season for the first since 2017 and are the favorites to win the AFC South again this year. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker checks in on the available markets and shares his thoughts and picks in our Jaguars betting preview focused on the latest NFL futures odds from our best sports betting apps.
It was a successful first season for Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson. The Jags were analytical darlings all season, and he led them to one of the largest comeback wins in playoff history.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence took his game to another level, and Jacksonville finished with the third-highest points differential in the AFC while also going 8-4 in the conference.
Expectations are high for the Lawrence-led Jags, and Pederson has championship pedigree on his resume. I just expect a few more teams to have Jacksonville circled on their calendars this time around.
best live betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Jaguars betting preview 2023
Jaguars to win Under 9.5 games (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
I have the Jaguars projected for 9.6 wins, and I think it’s easy to forget that it took a five-game winning streak to end the 2022 campaign for Jacksonville to finish 9-8.
Additionally, the Jags aren’t sneaking up on anyone in 2023 after winning a playoff game and going toe-to-toe with the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round last year.
My numbers have the Under 9.5 wins priced at +109, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 10% compared to the +130 odds DraftKings is hanging. It’s also worthwhile to highlight that the Under 10.0 wins through Caesars (-110) presents just a 7% positive expected value compared to my -128 price.
Jaguars to win AFC (+1500 via FanDuel) ⭐
Stay with me here because after recommending the Jags for Under 9.5 wins, I’d understand the skepticism for betting on Jacksonville to win the AFC.
But numbers are numbers, and these are two completely different betting markets. I have Jacksonville priced at +1289 to win the AFC, so there’s a positive expected value of 15% on the +1500 FanDuel is hanging.
Additionally, if the odds are right, Jacksonville will win the AFC South. That’s Step 1 to winning the conference, and the +1500 number is long enough that planting a preseason flag on the Jags can provide enough equity in your portfolio to hedge your way to a profit.
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Calvin Ridley Over 825.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
It’s only fitting to bet on Ridley in his return from a year-long gambling ban that cost him the entire 2022 season. However, he also missed most of 2021, and he’ll also be donning new digs in Duval this year.
Still, Ridley doesn’t have a concerning injury history, and he broke out to the tune of 90 receptions for 1,374 yards in his last full season in 2020.
I have the first-year Jag projected for 903 receiving yards, so my price for this is Over is -136, and we’re landing a positive expected value of 9% with the FanDuel number.
Travis Etienne Over 900.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
This is another player prop with an edge based on my projection of Etienne finishing the year with 978 rushing yards. I’d price the Over 900.5 at -135, which presents a 9% positive expected value on the -112 price through FanDuel.
Additionally, it’s also worth highlighting Etienne is trading as high as 950.5 through DraftKings, so we’re also landing an advantage in selecting the right sportsbook.
Etienne played all 17 games and finished with 1,125 rushing yards last season, and he split playing time with James Robinson to start the campaign. It wasn’t all roses and sunshine, as the rookie struggled with drops and often lacked the rush-to-rush consistency to complement his explosiveness.
Still, I’m buying the benefit of another full offseason, added experience and an undisputed No. 1 role out of the backfield heading into his second year.
Plus, Etienne breaks off chunk runs in bunches. He busted off four, 40-plus yard rushes and added another four 20-plus yard runs while averaging 5.1 per tote across 220 carries in 2022.
Jaguars 1-plus touchdown in every regular season game (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jacksonville found the end zone in 16 of 17 regular-season games last year, and the only gaff was during Week 15 against the Houston Texans.
In that lone letdown, Lawrence threw two interceptions, and the Jags had seven more first downs and 166 more total yards than the Texans in the 13-6 loss. It was a touch on the unlucky side.
Still, the real draw to this wager is the gap in the odds offered. FanDuel has the same season special priced at -135, so there’s a considerable edge available through DraftKings. The +100 number presents a positive expected value of 15% over the -135 price.
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