Maple Leafs picks and props Dec. 19: Bet on John Tavares to produce in high-scoring game vs. Rangers

The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers face off for the second time in a week tonight. 

The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs spoiled Kyle Dubas’ return to Toronto on Saturday by crushing the Penguins, 7-0. Toronto is scoring at a ridiculously high rate with help from both primary and secondary options. Bet the over on the game total and back John Tavares to rifle shots on net. 

NHL oddsas of 11:42 a.m. ET on 12/19/2023.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Rangers

Best Bet: Over 6.5 goals (-112)

Toronto’s offence was on full display Saturday night. 

The Leafs shared the love evenly, boasting seven goalscorers against the Penguins. But perhaps the even bigger story was Martin Jones, who stopped 38 shots for his first shutout since last January. Jones has been a pleasant surprise for the Leafs, who were in desperate need of reliable goaltending. 

Now, it's the New York Rangers who are experiencing a lack of consistency in net. Igor Shesterkin has allowed 16 goals in his last four starts and has given up at least three in seven of his last 10, including allowing six against the Leafs last week. 

The Rangers’ offence has continued to produce, however, with 14 goals over the last four games. They’ve scored at least three goals in six of their last 10 and are averaging 3.06 goals per game on the road this season, according to StatMuse. 

That being said, it’s the Leafs who should be doing the heavy lifting in this over.

Toronto is averaging 3.90 goals per game over its last 10 and 3.96 on home ice this season. Over their last three games, the Buds have scored 19 goals.

Key stat: Seven of Toronto's last eight games (87.5%) have gone over 6.5 goals.

Quick pick

Tavares over 3.5 shots (+105): Tavares has been on a heater in December, boasting a seven-game point streak with two goals and seven assists this month.

The veteran captain is scoring at a point-per-game pace this season with 29 points in 28 games. 

Tavares has also been shooting the puck more recently, evidenced by his nine shots against Pittsburgh and an average of 5.4 shots per game over his last five. 

With four-plus shots in 16 of 28 games this season — as well as six of his past seven — Tavares is an enticing pick to hit that mark again tonight.

Amid his current point streak, expect Tavares to continue generating shots on goal against the Rangers.

Damien Lisi writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. The Star's parent company has a minority interest in NorthStar Bets.