Maple Leafs picks and props vs. Penguins Dec. 16: Bet on the over and Matthews to score

The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins to town for a Hockey Night in Canada showdown.

The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs battled back from a 5-0 deficit on Thursday to force overtime against the Columbus Blue Jackets before losing. It wasn't pretty, but that type of high-event hockey has been customary for Toronto. Bet on the over and Auston Matthews to score tonight.

NHL oddsas of 10:25 a.m. ET on 12/16/2023.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Penguins

Best Bet: Over 6.5 goals (-134)

Thursday's game was about as "Leafsy" as it gets.

Toronto showed up flat against one of the worst teams in the league. Its mediocre defence and goaltending got exposed for a five-spot in 40 minutes, and then the team's top-end talent bailed them out — only for the squad to lose in overtime.

It's a concerning trend for Maple Leafs fans but is one bettors should be itching to jump on.

Toronto has been consistently playing in shootouts lately, with six of its past seven games clearing this total. There have been a combined 21 goals in the Maple Leafs' last two outings and the team's offence has shown up to play.

But then you have Ilya Samsonov, who owns a 3.51 GAA and .878 save percentage. Those marks rank 47th and 52nd, respectively, in the NHL (among 56 qualified goalies).

The Penguins aren't a great overs team by any means and that's largely thanks to stellar goaltending. Tristan Jarry ranks 10th in both GAA (2.46) and SV% (.917) and each of his last three starts has gone under this total.

That said, Toronto's trend is worth backing until it gets bucked.

Key stat: Eight of Toronto's last 11 games (72.7%) have gone over 6.5 goals.

Quick pick

Matthews anytime goalscorer (-114): When Matthews gets going, no one can stop him. The two-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner has nine goals in his last six games, seven of which have come in his last four. He's up to a league-leading 23 goals in 27 games.

During this stretch, Matthews has fired the puck at an obscene rate. He's averaging 5.8 shots per game in December and has nine or more shots in two of his last three games.

As mentioned, the Penguins are a solid defensive team. But it's difficult not to back a proven goalscorer when he's on a heater like this.