MLB agent survey: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and big-market teams under pressure at Winter Meetings

By Patrick Mooney, Brittany Ghiroli and Will Sammon

For all of the mystery surrounding Shohei Ohtani, there is a clear consensus that he will sign the biggest player contract in baseball history. His extraordinary talents as a hitter and a pitcher — combined with his off-the-field marketing potential as a global icon — will override any concerns about his right elbow or the wisdom of those super-long-term deals. That star power and crossover appeal is exactly what Major League Baseball craves.

Ohtani will undeniably be the biggest story during this week’s Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tenn., where his decision will loom over everything else at this annual convention. But there are many other reasons why the sprawling Opryland Resort and Convention Center should be buzzing.

Juan Soto, another generational talent, is a trade target and a year away from free agency. There is the next wave of talent coming from Japan, headlined by Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Several big-market franchises are in transition periods after a cycle of hirings and firings. Regional sports networks are crumbling, adding uncertainty to business plans. The two teams in this year’s World Series each lost 100-plus games in 2021, creating hope for quick turnarounds.

To better understand this landscape, The Athletic surveyed 16 agents, who were granted anonymity in exchange for their candor. Some answers have been lightly edited for length and clarity. Ohtani’s decision should open the floodgates.

1. Do you enjoy the Winter Meetings?

Yes: 9 votes

“We should embrace events like this.”

“For some players, for some deals, I’ve found in-person conversations quite helpful.”

No: 4 votes

“It’s a pain in the ass.”

“It’s a waste of time and money. It’s more for the fans to get excited about something. You can have a lot of these conversations by Zoom or by phone.”

When it’s in San Diego/not at the Opryland: 3 votes

2. The Braves, Dodgers and Orioles each won at least 100 games and were quickly bounced from the playoffs. Should the postseason format be revised? 

Yes: 5 votes

“We have a 162-game season for what, again, exactly?

“It should go back to the division winners and one wild card. But it won’t.”

No: 11 votes

“The playoffs have always been a crapshoot.”

“It might not be ideal to break up the momentum, but the Astros are able to survive it. Other teams have figured out how to be successful.”

“The Orioles should go sign some players and spend some money.”

“If you don’t like it, play better.”

“If you are the best, you find a way to win the big games. Period.”

3. Where will Shohei Ohtani sign?

Dodgers: 8 votes

Cubs: 3 votes

Giants: 2 votes

Rangers: 1 vote

Somewhere on the West Coast: 1 vote

4. If the over/under for Ohtani is $450 million, what are you taking?

Over: 16 votes

“The over should be $500 million.”

“If he hit free agency after he punched out Mike Trout to end the World Baseball Classic, the over/under would have been $600 million.”

“Should you have set this at $600 million?”

5. Will the Padres trade Juan Soto?

Yes: 11 votes

“It’s a payroll dump to try to get some more pitching depth. You just have to look at the clubs that have the money.”

(The Yankees were often mentioned as the team most likely to acquire Soto.)

Yes, but probably closer to the trade deadline: 2 votes

No: 3 votes

“They have a good team that just missed the playoffs and can get cheaper in other ways.”

“They overspent for reasons that I believe are now evident: Peter Seidler wanted to win before he died — for himself, for the legacy of his family and for the community he loved.”

“I don’t think we ever fully know what’s going on with these teams. They cry poor a lot, but the reason these guys are billionaires is they do things a certain way. I think it was a cash flow issue. Did they stretch a bit? Probably. Are they thinner than usual? Probably. But I don’t think their franchise is in despair. I think Seidler knew he was towards the end of his life and wanted to make a run for it. Good for him.”

“I think a lot of teams do that — it just doesn’t leak out to the media. It’s like owning a home, it goes up in value over time. It’s like doing a remodel on your home, eventually, you get that money back and maybe more.”

“That’s a good thing for the players if teams are extending themselves like that. Businesses take out debt all the time for certain expansion projects.”

“They sold out every game, didn’t they? I really wouldn’t worry about it. I don’t think they’re out over their skis. It might just be a function of the way they handle their books.”

“A lot of teams are going to be in similar boats, borrowing money — many already do — if the TV mess isn’t figured out.”

7. There is a perception that the Yankees went overboard with analytics. Is that criticism fair or overblown?

Fair: 8 votes

“They’ve gotten away from what made them the Yankees.”

“If you watch Aaron Boone, he stands in one position through most of the game…listening for analytic direction coming down the tunnel.”

Overblown: 8 votes

“Everyone uses analytics in some capacity. It’s a blend of both for everyone. I would say other teams are way more invested in analytics than the Yankees are.”

“It’s this arms race for information and how to best utilize the information. Whenever it doesn’t work out perfectly, we’re always looking for something to blame.”

“They’ve been around for 100-plus years and 27 World Series championships. It’s a storied franchise that is held to a higher standard. But other teams are also good at baseball.”

8. Will David Stearns’ small-market success translate in New York? 

Yes: 14 votes

“No doubt. Give one of the smartest GMs in the game a big payroll? This is going to be a powerhouse.”

“No question. He’s smart and genuine. He’s a good evaluator and communicator and both of those things transfer well into different markets.”

“He handles people well. That’s what gets lost somewhere in the conversation about him. But he has the soft skills in addition to everything else you need to succeed anywhere in the game.”

“He’s a great GM with more money. I don’t see how you’d bet on that turning out poorly unless you just don’t like the guy.”

No: 1 vote

“It worked in Milwaukee because it was Milwaukee. Steve Cohen wants to win now. It took time for Stearns to build it up and get that thing going. I commend the job he did while he was there, but that was in Milwaukee. New York’s a beast. New York can be rough.”

Maybe: 1 vote

“How did that work out for Chaim Bloom? Everybody was wrong on that hire in Boston.”

9. How will Steve Cohen recalibrate after the Mets’ disastrous season?

“By letting Stearns do whatever the hell he wants.”

“Sometimes you have to realize a bad investment and simply cut your losses. He responded accordingly by bringing in new people to make better baseball ops decisions.”

“Stock goes up, stock goes down. He will make moves accordingly.”

“That guy’s a wild card. If he’s smart, he’ll just let Stearns do his thing. At that point, why get involved?”

“He needs to let the people he hired do the job without his constant interference. Show some faith. Most big-money teams that aren’t successful have meddling owners.”

“What Cohen probably learned is that you don’t have to have the highest-paid players in baseball to be good. The Tampa Bay Rays have shown that example more than anybody in baseball.”

“The man wants to win. He cares. So he will continue to do what it takes.”

“David Stearns will educate him a little bit. Billy Eppler was probably more trying to please the owner. David will talk to him and they’ll be good for each other.”

10. Can Craig Breslow turn around the Red Sox? 

Yes: 2 votes

“The Red Sox are always going to be a team that should be in contention every single year. Breslow is in a lot of ways very much like Rangers GM Chris Young where it’s a homecoming and you’ve got an Ivy League big-leaguer. That’s important because analytics are here to stay, but the players are still resistant to, ‘Well, how many doubles do you have in the big leagues? How many innings did you throw?’ If you can find those unicorns, they are incredibly savvy and able to take this new age of baseball and articulate it to the players.”

“The perception there is Alex Cora is sort of like GM 1A. They did get a lot of ‘nos’ — like ‘I’m not taking that job’ or ‘I’m not interviewing for that job’ — because of that. But Craig being an ex-player and teammate of Alex’s is a good thing.”

No: 5 votes

“It’s one thing to help pitchers. It’s another to run an organization.”

“He’s Chaim Bloom with playing experience. Nothing changes there until ownership decides to be the Red Sox again.”

“He’s inexperienced, so he’ll make all the same inexperienced mistakes, in addition to an already poor internal culture, particularly at the minor-league level. There seems to be a lot of people trying to climb the ranks with no accountability, blaming players for lack of production while many of the good people in the front office can’t keep up fast enough with the damage control for the poor handling of issues throughout the ranks. His inexperience will only lend to further chaos.”

To be determined: 9 votes

“It’s on ownership. I am sure he is fine for the job. But the GM or person in charge of baseball operations was not the problem.”

“I am skeptical because it’s a big job for someone with little experience, and that inexperience will probably lead to some mistakes early on that they really can’t afford to be making right now.”

“Bres is a super-intelligent dude, but I think he will have to make some baseball decisions and not rely so much on analytics.”

11. Do you think Craig Counsell is a major hire for the Cubs?

Yes: 9 votes

“He’s the best manager in the game right now.”

“Managers should be paid. They are the de facto spokesperson for the team in addition to being tasked with the messaging from the front office and the handling of players day to day.”

“That depends on how much latitude front offices allow the manager to have. Jed Hoyer does a good job of letting the managers manage, so I think it will be a good hire for Chicago. But in this new age of front offices filling out the lineup card, you kind of just have a figurehead in the locker room that’s trying to keep the peace. In this instance, yes, I think Counsell is a well-respected manager with a winning track record and he’s got a front office that will empower him to be a leader.”

No: 7 votes

“I don’t think (he’s) is any better than David Ross.”

“He had a really good pitching staff in Milwaukee.”

“I was kind of shocked by how that went down and the amount of money paid for him. I heard great things about him. Don’t get me wrong. I’ve had players that loved him. But how much does that move the needle?”

“That’s a lot of money for a manager who has never reached the World Series.”

12. What are the ramifications if the A’s relocate from Oakland to Las Vegas?

“Are the A’s going to step up and act like a real team? That remains to be seen. I’d love to see John Fisher be pressured by other owners to do so.”

“I hope they spend. That’s my biggest concern. They basically stole money from revenue sharing for years and they didn’t want to pay players. They always traded guys and didn’t sign any free agents. They kind of gamed the system.”

“Right now, it’s a very hard sell. You’ve got a team that is destined to lose 100-plus games. You’ve got a stadium that’s empty. You’ve got a city that is in disrepair in a lot of ways. You’re going and playing in an environment that is just not fun.”

“Oakland Athletics gear could be seen and represented throughout the nation. There will be no pride or sizable fan base with the Las Vegas Athletics. Similar to the Raiders, attendees will be for the teams faced, not the ‘home team.’”

“Are they really going to increase the interest level by being in Las Vegas with that club? Hopefully, they’re going to invest in the product and put it on the field. We don’t know until we can actually see it.”

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic / Getty Images)