National League win total best bets: Odds, picks, predictions

After signing the two biggest free agents in the offseason, and making a trade for another top-shelf starting pitcher, the Dodgers are deservedly favored to win the National League pennant in 2024.

However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value elsewhere in the NL futures market.

Here are three – all from the West – that have value, including a fade of the Dodgers (yes, you read that correctly).

Let’s dig in.

Since MLB expanded to 162 games in 1961, there have been 15 teams to win 105 or more games in a single season. Since the Seattle Mariners tied the all-time mark with 116 victories in 2001, there have been only seven teams to accomplish the feat.

Of those seven, the Dodgers have done it three times.

So, is fading the Dodgers a scary proposition? Absolutely. However, their win total is just too big of a number – for this season.

Only three teams won 100 games in 2023 and none of them got to 105. The Dodgers went over this number in both 2021 (106) and ‘22 (111), but the NL West is much better now.

Los Angeles will be able rack up wins against the Rockies, but the Diamondbacks are much improved and the loaded Padres are due for positive regression after a disappointing 2023 campaign. Relative to the market, I’m also high on the Giants this season.

While the additions the Dodgers made in the offseason, notably Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto through free agency and Tyler Glasnow via trade, strengthened an already loaded team, but that doesn’t mean the roster is perfect.

I have questions about the pitching staff’s durability as Glasnow threw a career-high 120 innings last season and Yamamoto will be adjusting to both a new league and country.

With a win total this high, any slight hiccup could cause the team to go under.If you want a little more insurance for the Dodgers, DraftKings has “Most Regular Season Wins by Any Team” prop at 106.5. However, you then have to worry about the Braves, whose win total sits at 101.5.

It’s uncertain whether the Diamondbacks can repeat as National League champions, but this team certainly took a major step forward in 2023 and has plenty to build on moving forward.

Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly proved more than capable of anchoring a rotation, and if Brandon Pfaadt’s postseason was a sign of things to come, the rest of the NL West should be on alert.

Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll (+1800 to win NL MVP) is the star of the offense, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Alek Thomas take a step forward.

The Joc Pederson signing went a bit under the radar, but he adds some pop to the lineup and will primarily serve as a DH, so he could be fresher to continue slugging later in the season.

Perhaps the Giants didn’t make the big offseason splash signing fans had hoped for, but there’s still a lot to work with in San Francisco. This team won 79 games a season ago and asking them to be just three wins better is not a huge ask.

Is new manager Bob Melvin worth three wins on his own? Perhaps. While things didn’t work out in San Diego, Melvin is still a very good, respected manager.

Logan Webb is a workhorse at the top of the rotation and I’m also high on 22-year-old Kyle Harrison.

The Giants are going to win with pitching and defense, but Patrick Bailey showed some signs offensively last season, and the offseason additions of Jung Ho Lee and Jorge Soler should provide a boost to the offense.

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