Lukewarm Stove: Bieber Staying Put? Could We See a Cubs-Marlins Trade? Montgomery, Snell, Phillies, More

MLB RUMORS — I don’t know where or when we first started talking about the concept of different offseason paths for the Cubs. But I do believe that’s how a lot of front offices, and specifically the Cubs, operate. Not necessarily straight line paths, but certainly a situation where certain moves are possible or desirable only when other precursors have or have not happened.

For example, I imagine the Cubs had a whole lineup of subsequent plans had they signed Shohei Ohtani, and those plans might not have included signing Shota Imanaga or trading for Michael Busch.

But after missing out on Ohtani (or Juan Soto or Yoshinobo Yamamoto), this is the path they’re on. And I just wonder what plans (i.e. the ideal next steps) are on that list. The Cubs won’t get them all, but it would be fun to know what the rest of their dream offseason looks like from here.

Shane Bieber Trade “Very Unlikely”?

Here’s an example: Was the Busch trade THE trade of the winter for the Cubs? Obviously, the Cubs believe Busch is big league ready, and they did send legitimate prospects to the Dodgers for him. But I think I’m still anticipating another buy-side trade involving Cubs prospects (or young big leaguers) to acquire another team’s established big leaguer.

Shane Bieber was the hot-and-heavy trade candidate for the Cubs on the rumor mill for a while, but that thread has been cold for a while. And while one anonymous GM said that the Guardians are still discussing potential Bieber trades with other teams, “the latest word is that a trade involving Bieber is very unlikely.”

What About Marlins Trade Chips?

In a separate article at The New York Post, Jon Heyman reports that the Marlins are telling teams they’re willing to listen on everyone almost everyone (one rival apparently said that excludes Eury Perez, though).

And that means that batting-champion Luis Arraez is available (can he play third?), as well as lefty Jesús Luzardo and righty Edward Cabrera.

Could the Cubs become interested in any of the above? I mean, sure. Why not? There are at least ways to talk yourself into the plausibility.

This is pure speculation, but with Christopher Morel’s skillset/position being at least partially duplicated by Michael Busch (and it would be even more so if the Cubs landed any of Rhys Hoskins, Matt Chapman, or Cody Bellinger), you could see him being of interest to the Marlins. Aside from being cheaper and and under control for longer*, Morel could even play second base for the Marlins if they did end up trading Arraez (to the Cubs or elsewhere).

*Arraez, 26, is projected to make $10.8M (via arbitration) in 2024. From there, he’ll be under control for one more season (2025) at something north of at least $12M. Morel, 24, by contrast, is not even arbitration eligible until 2026 and won’t be a free agent until 2029.

But I don’t want to lose the thread here, because I think one of the Marlins pitchers is a far more likely Cubs target than Arraez. Though it is fun to imagine a much larger trade that attempts to pry both out of Miami.

Where Will Montgomery and Snell End Up?

I don’t have long thoughts on this one, but I did just want to point out that the Yankees (Marcus Stroman), Giants (Jordan Hicks and Robbie Ray later in the year), Cubs (Shota Imanaga), and Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani next year) all recently added starting pitching. Meanwhile, the Rangers and Padres are dealing with blurry financial futures and the Mets and Phillies and Braves don’t seem to be involved in the top tier of free agent starting pitchers.

The Orioles are also reportedly considered free agent starters with the exception of Montgomery and Snell. So … who’s left? The Cardinals are tapped out financially and have already added starting. So … maybe the Angels? The Red Sox? And don’t forget, Dylan Cease is still out there ready to be traded.

I don’t know how much I believe the Cubs will actually go out there and spend on another lefty for the rotation (Montgomery) or what it would take for Snell (who reportedly turned down a 5-year/$150M deal from the Yankees). But maybe if their market(s) drag on long enough, there’ll be value to be had, and sometimes that’s what the Cubs are hunting for the most.