Blake Snell to the Orioles and 8 Bold Predictions for MLB Free Agency
Now that the top MLB free agents are off the market with both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the rest of the free-agent landscape is expected to finally take shape in the coming weeks.
Outside of the obvious Ohtani hysteria, it's been a relatively quiet offseason for free agents thus far.
Yet, plenty of teams have money to spend and need to make the substantial upgrades it will take to be competitive next year.
In this exercise, we venture to think slightly outside the box and offer eight bold predictions in MLB free agency.
The Angels need an ace to replace Shohei Ohtani, but what if they are unable to get one? The alternative could be throwing money at Marcus Stroman, a viable front-line starter who is available.
It's not like landing Blake Snell, the prize of this starting pitching free-agent class, but Stroman would still be better than anyone in the Angels' projected rotation.
The 32-year-old would sit comfortably at the top of the rotation with Reid Detmers and Griffin Canning. He would also add some depth to a pitching staff sorely lacking it.
Stroman has pitched well with the Chicago Cubs the past two seasons, despite battling through injuries that limited him to just 52 appearances.
When healthy, he is one of the better ground-ball pitchers in baseball and his FIP ranked in the top 20 last season. The Angels, meanwhile, ranked in the bottom seven in FIP.
The Angels are one of three teams linked to Stroman, along with the Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
Here is the Yankees' chance to right a wrong. They have a clear need in their rotation that could be filled by a pitcher they probably should have never traded.
To think that just two seasons ago, the Yankees dealt Jordan Montgomery to the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline because he would not fit into their postseason rotation. The next season, their postseason hopes were shot and they traded him to the Texas Rangers, where he certainly fit into the postseason rotation.
In 11 starts with the Rangers, the 31-year-old posted a 2.79 ERA.
The awkward part would be Montgomery returning with that elusive World Series ring the Yankees have been trying to recapture for 15 years. His FIP for the entire season was 3.56, just slightly better than Stroman's.
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Yankees have discussed internally pursuing a reunion with Montgomery. So the idea is not far-fetched, but it is bold considering they are less than two years removed from essentially saying the guy wasn't good enough.
Not to mention they are competing for Montgomery against the Rangers, the team that put him in a position to sign a massive contract.
The Giants were a much more logical suitor for Cody Bellinger before they agreed to a six-year, $113 million deal with center fielder Jung Hoo Lee.
That would seem to take them out of the Bellinger business, considering he also plays center field and should command a hefty salary in free agency.
However, the Giants are desperate to land a star, and their most glaring need going into the offseason was addressing the outfield. Not just one signing, but a potential overhaul if they are serious about winning in a division featuring the Dodgers.
Why stop at just one highly paid center fielder? You can never have too much defense, especially if it's ultimately bolstering your struggling offense.
Bellinger, 28, provides the thump this Giants lineup is lacking. Watching the former Dodger rock the rival team's uniform would also be a bold look.
Bruce Levin of 670 The Score believes the Cubs and Bellinger's agent, Scott Boras, are currently playing a game of chicken, and the two sides will eventually come to terms. Yet the Giants are very much capable of swooping in and offering up the sort of massive deal to land him.
The question is: How comfortable is San Francisco giving Bellinger $30 million per year for six-to-eight years?
As Morosi pointed out in November, it's been a revolving door for the Yankees at third base for more than a year.
Only six teams had a lesser fWAR from third base last season than the Yankees, so it would make sense to seek out a significant upgrade.
Matt Chapman is, arguably, a top-five third baseman in the sport. His 3.5 fWAR last season tied for fifth among third basemen last season.
The four-time Gold Glove Award winner playing next to 22-year-old Anthony Volpe would give the Yankees a strong pairing on the left side of the infield. But Chapman's presence would be felt greatest at the plate, where he is a threat to hit 30 home runs in most seasons.
The Yankees splurged with their trade for Juan Soto earlier this offseason, but they have yet to sign a marquee free agent. Adding Chapman after trading for Soto would completely change the complexion of this lineup.
Meanwhile, Jon Heyman reported on B/R that Chapman "makes great sense" with the Giants, noting that new manager Bob Melvin was with the 30-year-old for five years in Oakland.
In an offseason that included Shohei Ohtani's free agency and a two-time Cy Young Award winner available to sign, the Mets will fall flat.
Their biggest signing will be former World Series MVP Jorge Soler, who will serve primarily as their designated hitter because his defense leaves so much to be desired.
Just a year after signing Justin Verlander to pair with Max Scherzer at the top of their rotation, the Mets are having an underwhelming offseason.
New president of baseball operations David Stearns still has plenty of work to do in filling the holes on the roster. His résumé and Steve Cohen's willingness to spend have not yet translated into big-time free-agent signings, which could signal them settling for the next tier of free agents.
Only six teams had a lower OPS from the designated hitter than the Mets last season. For Soler's part in Miami, only four designated hitters had a higher OPS.
Soler makes sense for the Mets, so that part of the prediction isn't bold. It's the idea that the 31-year-old could be the best player they get in free agency, despite all of that money they have.
Josh Hader makes the most sense for the Texas Rangers, who won the World Series without a stellar bullpen, or the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are spending more money than anyone this offseason. Those are the two most interested teams, per Morosi.
You could even see the New York Yankees or Philadelphia Phillies in the mix, given the depth of their pockets and both of them needing bullpen help.
The Blue Jays' priorities this offseason were in left field, third base, a first-base bat and more starting pitching depth. They already have a good closer in Jordan Romano, but that's what makes this move so bold. You also can't ignore the command issues that plagued Romano late in the regular season.
As, arguably, the best closer in baseball, Hader is an obvious upgrade and would allow the Blue Jays to shift around roles in their bullpen.
Toronto is desperate to win a playoff series in 2024, and shortening the game with Romano and Hader in the eighth and ninth would be a big step in that direction.
Atlanta entered the offseason with the fewest weaknesses of any team, despite its disappointing finish to 2023.
But one thing at the top of its wish list is adding another top-end starter, and signing Shōta Imanaga is one way to do it.
This prediction is bold because there haven't been many reports linking the 30-year-old to Atlanta, which would be just fine in 2024 without him.
Yet being as close as Atlanta was to doing something special last year has to put Imanaga firmly on its radar, even if it would be more of a signing of luxury than need.
Atlanta's focus on upgrading the rotation primarily seems to be on the trade market, with names such as Dylan Cease available and Tyler Glasnow before he was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If unable to swing a trade, throwing down money for a mid-rotation starter—as Imanaga is projected to be—may be the way forward.
You mostly hear about the Los Angeles teams, or the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies, when it comes to Blake Snell.
It would make all the sense in the world for the top starting pitcher in free agency to land with one of the major-market, heavy-spending ball clubs coming off his second Cy Young Award-winning season.
Snell being from the west coast and preferring to play out there is a narrative that has been mentioned multiple times this offseason.
That's why the bold prediction is sending the 31-year-old to Baltimore, which had the second-lowest payroll in baseball last season. Instead of watching him go to one of the usual big spenders, the Orioles open the checkbook for someone who completely changes the complexion of their rotation.
Starting pitching is what held the Orioles back from being simply the top seed in the AL to a team that could actually win it all. Their starters ranked 11th in ERA and 13th in FIP across baseball.
Snell, meanwhile, had the lowest ERA and ranked 13th in FIP among starters. The baseball fit is clear. The Orioles just need to write the $200 million check.
