NFC West Division Odds: Picks, Predictions, and More

After a disappointing loss in the NFC Championship Game in which they were without a healthy quarterback for the entire second half, the San Francisco 49ers enter 2023 as the biggest favorites to win their division of any team in the NFL this season.

The Los Angeles Rams — and especially the Arizona Cardinals — should not be a threat to challenge the 49ers in their quest to repeat as NFC West champions. But will an improved Seattle Seahawks team, after a surprising playoff appearance last season, make this a closer race than expected? In this NFC West division preview, we break down the betting odds, give our picks and predictions, and more.

Use these sportsbook sign-up offers this NFL season!

NFC West Division Preview

The 49ers are loaded with talent on both sides of the football and are defying the common belief that QB is the most important position. But they’re rightfully confident in Brock Purdy as their starting quarterback after he led them to a 6-1 record (including the playoffs) last season.

Purdy has one of the best supporting casts in the NFL with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, as well as one of the best offensive-minded head coaches in Kyle Shanahan.

But as good as their offense is, San Francisco’s defense might be even better. Although they lost defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, the 49ers might be even better than last season’s No. 1 ranked defense after the acquisition of former Eagles DT Javon Hargrave.

Nobody expected Geno Smith to lead the Seahawks into the postseason and then get rewarded with a $100 million extension, but here we are. Seattle greatly outperformed expectations last season and are expected to be even better in 2023.

They added Jaxon Smith-Njigba to an already talented WR corps, and their 26th-ranked defense from last season should be improved with Bobby Wagner’s return, Jamal Adams coming back from injury, signing Dre’Mont Jones, and getting CB Devon Witherspoon with the fifth pick in the draft. As long as Smith can carry over his success from last season — or even get better — the Seahawks should be back in the playoffs.

2022 was a never-ending Super Bowl hangover for the Los Angeles Rams. They finally suffered some injury luck, as they lost the second-most games due to injury last season, per Football Outsiders.

Now, L.A.’s aggressive win-now approach to roster building has finally caught up to bite them. Many key veterans are gone from that Super Bowl roster, and this a team with not much talent outside of their star players in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald.

If you take away the three best players from every team in the NFL, this is easily a bottom-three roster in the NFL. Like last season, if those players struggle to stay healthy, then the Rams could potentially be competing with the Cardinals in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.

Expectations for the Cardinals in 2023 are historically low. Going into this season, no team has a lower win total than the Cardinals at 3.5, which is the third lowest since 1989. In fact, there is even some buzz that Arizona could potentially go 0-17.

After inheriting a terrible situation from the last regime, head coach Jonathan Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort are completely rebuilding — and basically from scratch. Kyler Murray is expected to be out a while recovering from his torn ACL, and we still aren’t even sure who the Cardinals’ starting QB will be between fifth-round pick rookie Clayton Tune or Joshua Dobbs, who they acquired a week ago.

Live NFC West Odds

Place your bet on this year’s NFC West winner on the widget below!

NFC West Predictions

Blewis: The Cardinals are considered the worst team in the NFL by a wide margin. Their win total is just 3.5, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them go 0-17. That’s how bad this roster is.

Their in-division win total is set at 1.5, which would require them to go 2-4 or better against their NFC West rivals. It would take a major upset for them to beat the 49ers in either contest, and they play the Seahawks in the final week of the season, who could be fighting for playoff seeding. Let’s chalk that up as four losses right there.

Like the Cardinals, the Rams are also expected to be a bad team this season, but they’re much more talented. Los Angeles still has Stafford, Kupp, Donald, and a terrific head coach in Sean McVay. When comparing top-end talent and head coaches, the Rams win by a significant margin.

L.A.’s issue is depth, but it’s not like the Cardinals are deep with talent whatsoever.  If I’m projecting the Cardinals to go 0-4 against the 49ers and Seahawks, they would have to sweep the Rams to hit this over. I’m betting against that happening.

Pick: Cardinals under 1.5 division wins (+100 at DraftKings)

Katz: Geno Smith was awesome last year. There’s no denying that. As rare as it is to see a ninth-year breakout, it happened. He threw for 4,282 yards, which is the relevant number for this discussion.

As a result, Smith is favored to lead the NFC West in passing yards again. But just two short years ago, Stafford threw for 4,886 yards. In his career, Stafford has surpassed Smith’s total passing yards from last season in six separate instances. We can easily write off Purdy because the 49ers won’t throw enough, and whoever the Cardinals are throwing out there at QB. So, this bet comes down to Smith vs. Stafford.

As great as Smith is, and as legitimate as I think his breakout was, he’s not the prolific passer that Stafford is. The Seahawks are going to be the better team. Thus, they will be leading more and throwing less.

The Rams’ defense projects to be one of the worst in the league. That means more pass attempts for Stafford. The only thing standing between him and running away with this is health.

Essentially, this bet boils down to, “Will Stafford stay healthy this season?” Since we can’t predict injury, I’ll take that bet.

Pick: Matthew Stafford to lead the NFC West in passing yards (+200 at FanDuel)