NFL Rushing Props 2023

sportsbookreview.com

05 July 2023

NFL rushing props for the 2023 season are popping up all over our best sports betting apps and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has some early picks based on the latest NFL odds.

Rushing the rock doesn’t return the same respect it once did, but you’ll be hard pressed to find a championship-caliber team that can’t move the chains with the ground and pound when needed.

Mobile quarterbacks are all the rage, there’s been an uptick in wide receivers handling the ball out of the backfield, and true No. 1 running backs are becoming more scarce by the season.

Committee rushing attacks are here to stay, and it adds another layer of analysis required to best approach NFL rushing props.

NFL passing props picks, here’s a look at my initial NFL rushing props picks and the odds available across our best NFL betting sites.

NFL most rushing yards odds 2023

(odds as of July 5)

NFL most rushing touchdowns odds 2023

(odds as of July 5)

NFL most quarterback rushing yards odds 2023

(odds as of July 5)

NFL rushing props 2023: Picks

Aaron Jones Over 799.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
James Cook Over 600.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Rashaad Penny Over 600.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL rushing props 2023: Handicap breakdown

Here’s a quick breakdown of my handicapping process:

Create custom projections for rushing yards and rushing touchdowns
Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
Convert the probability to odds
Compare my odds with the numbers across our best live betting sites

NFL rushing props 2023: Predictions

Aaron Jones Over 799.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM)⭐⭐⭐

I don’t expect the BetMGM total of 799.5 to last long, especially considering the 875.5 benchmark Caesars is hanging.

Jones has cleared 1,000 rushing yards in three of the past four seasons, with the 2021 campaign the lone outlier when he rushed for 799 across 15 games.

Having backfield running mate A.J. Dillion to share the workload with is also a benefit for Jones. The tandem attack keeps both rushers fresh and explosive. Jones’ career-high 236 carries came all the way back in 2019.

Add the Green Bay Packers turning the offense over to first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love, and making Jones and the rushing game a priority will be paramount to sheltering Love and sustaining lengthy, clock-eating drives.

I have Jones projected for 881 rushing yards.

As highlighted, there’s a huge gap in the total and attached expected value between the sportsbooks offering this prop. BetMGM is the best place to place this bet, and DraftKings is a close second.

James Cook Over 600.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars)⭐⭐⭐

The Buffalo Bills handled Cook with baby gloves as a rookie last season, as he only played 257 offensive snaps. Still, he flashed the potential that made him a second-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft with 507 rushing yards on just 89 attempts and six totes for more than 20 yards.

Buffalo bringing in veteran backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray curbs some of the upside for Cook to have a true statistical breakout this season, but again, I’m viewing the shared backfield as a positive.

Additionally, Harris has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons, and Murray is a 33-year-old plodder with 1,481 career carries on the odometer. Plus, it’s Cook who is the prized talent the club invested draft capital in.

If anything, Harris and Murray boost Cook’s production floor more than they lower his statistical ceiling.

I project Cook to run for 699 yards.

There’s a reason only one of our best sportsbooks has a rushing-yard total available for Cook. He’s a difficult player to handicap right now, so hat tip to Caesars for posting a number, and I see a lot of value in the Over based on my projection.

Rashaad Penny Over 600.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM)⭐⭐⭐

Penny hasn’t been able to stay healthy through his first five seasons in the league. He’s started just 11 games and been limited to only 337 rushing attempts.

Still, I’m encouraged about his signing with the Philadelphia Eagles. He’ll run behind an elite offensive line, and after rushing for 6.2 yards per tote the past two years, the former Seattle Seahawk is just another matchup nightmare opposing defenses will need to account for.

Additionally, while Penny has been routinely saddled to the sideline to this point of his career, it’s been a bit unlucky. We’re not talking about a serious injury that’s been aggravated time and time again.

Penny will also have plenty of competition for snaps with the Eagles trading for running back D’Andre Swift during the offseason, and Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott each have an established role in the rushing attack.

It’ll ultimately boil down to Penny suiting up for double-digit games and garnering 125 carries. My projection has Penny finishing with 723 rushing yards.

It’s almost fitting that the prop with the highest expected value after running the numbers is also the one I was least confident in at first glance because of Penny’s injury history. BetMGM has just over baked the risk and competition for carries into the total, and there’s a huge gap in its benchmark and my projection.

Just repeat after me, and multiple times if needed, Penny can miss multiple games and still cash the Over.