Buffalo Bills betting trends: Don't jump off the James Cook bandwagon
The Buffalo Bills lost in Week 5 but the result of Sunday's game is second to the injury suffered by Matt Milano.
The All-Pro linebacker suffered a potentially season-ending knee injury. It'll be almost impossible to fill his void, and we'll touch on how his absence will be felt. Buffalo trudges forward, however, and a date against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football awaits.
Here are the Bills betting trends to know before their Week 6 game.
Bills betting trends
What to expect with Milano out
The heart and soul of Buffalo's defences for years has been Milano.
The do-it-all linebacker is tied for first among all linebackers in interceptions (two) and forced fumbles (one), per Pro Football Focus.
He largely drew the assignment of taking away opposing teams' top tight ends, a big reason why the Bills are surrendering the seventh-fewest yards per game (31.2) to tight ends and zero touchdowns to the position this season, per Yahoo Fantasy.
Milano's absence will make it easier for opposing passers to target the middle of the field. Premier tight ends, like New York's Darren Waller, should have more success against Buffalo.
Tyrel Dodson (55) and Dorian Williams (32) both received snaps in Milano's place after he checked out of the game and it will be worth monitoring how they fill the void with him out.
Buffalo is 7-5 in games where Milano hasn't played, per Statmuse, although he has only missed two games since 2021.
Don't doubt James Cook
Cook's stat line from last week will likely scare some people away, but we recommend sticking with him.
The second-year back rushed for negative four yards on five carries against the Jaguars in Week 5. He did catch three of his four targets for 25 yards, but that doesn't help anybody who wagered on his rushing yards prop.
There are two reasons why bettors should continue believing Cook. The first is opportunity. Despite totalling 21 scrimmage yards on eight touches, he still logged 62% of the snaps. The next closest Bills running backs were Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, and they only had 11% a piece.
The second reason is the upcoming matchup against the Giants. New York is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (135.8) to running backs this season.
Josh Allen watch
Allen has cleared 300 passing yards in each of his last two games and there's an easy explanation as to why.
Buffalo has had to keep up with solid offences in each of its last two outings. In Week 4, it was Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins and in Week 5 it was Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.
Those expecting a gaudy yardage total against New York may be disappointed. The Giants rank 19th in passing yards against per game (226.6) this season despite tying for the third-most yards per pass attempt against (7.6).
The reason for that, of course, is because most opponents can transition to a run-heavy attack to run out the clock on a New York team that's usually trailing. Allen likely won't have to match Daniel Jones blow-for-blow through the air on Sunday night.
Instead, this may be a better time to jump on Allen's recent touchdown trend. The Buffalo QB has a rushing touchdown in each of his last three outings.
Wide receiver snap counts to monitor
Stefon Diggs is Buffalo's clear top option and Gabriel Davis is a mainstay at No. 2, but who is the team's WR3?
It appeared to be Trent Sherfield through the first four weeks as the newcomer logged 40-plus percent of the snaps in three of four games. But he only played 18% of the snaps in Week 5.
Khalil Shakir is starting to emerge as the Bills' third option as his snap share has risen every single week.
Although his usage hasn't resulted in much production this season (four targets, three receptions, 27 yards and one touchdown), it's good to know who's seeing the field and who isn't when looking to wager on receiving props.
Leonard Floyd sack machine
Floyd is doing what he does best: racking up the sacks while nobody seems to notice.
The veteran edge rusher recorded two more against Jacksonville in Week 5, bringing his total up to 5.5 this season. He's tied for sixth among all players in the category and is on pace for 22 sacks.
While it's unlikely he totals that many, he's well on his way to reaching nine sacks for a fourth consecutive season and hitting double digits for the second time in his career.
Floyd entered the 2023 campaign with 29.0 sacks across his last three seasons and clearly has plenty left in the tank.
Buffalo may be more willing to blitz opposing passers with injuries to the secondary (Tre White, Dane Jackson) and coverage linebacker Milano. That could result in more sacks for Floyd, who's already a great wager to bring down opposing quarterbacks.
It won't hurt his cause that the next quarterback he'll face, Jones, has been sacked the second most of any quarterback (28).
