Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Odds AFC Championship: Predictions for Chiefs vs. Ravens

Patrick Mahomes makes his sixth straight start in the AFC Championship Game when the Kansas City Chiefs face the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, and our Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds expect a quiet night for the two-time MVP.

Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the Kansas City Chiefs starter in 2018, his greatness has felt inevitable. That'll be put to the test Sunday in his sixth consecutive AFC Championship start - this one coming against a Baltimore Ravens team that has boasted the AFC's shortest Super Bowl odds for weeks.

The Ravens' suffocating defense is a major reason why they're our top pick in our Super Bowl predictions, though Mahomes has overcome elite units before. Can he pull off one of his greatest feats in just his third game as a playoff underdog?

To complement our Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction and Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL player props, here are our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player props (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for AFC Championship

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Patrick Mahomes player props

Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 passing attempts (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

As I laid out in my NFL Championship Sunday player props, the best way for the Chiefs to attack this elite Ravens defense is right up the middle, as Baltimore employs a light box at one of the league's highest rates.

That should mean a heavier workload for running back Isiah Pacheco and a lighter one for Mahomes, who threw it just 23 times in last week's win over the Buffalo Bills. That was well below his season average of 37.3 attempts — the highest mark in the league — but he's now fallen well short of this total in three of five playoff games over the last two seasons.

There's always a chance the Chiefs fall behind early and Mahomes resorts to hero ball, which is why this only draws a three-star endorsement. If this game is close, though, don't expect Mahomes to try to beat the league's best defense on his own.

Our Mike Spector gives his take on how this will impact his biggest target in his Travis Kelce NFL player props.

Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 rushing attempts (-118 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

All those light boxes that the Ravens like to play with? That sets up perfectly for another quintessential scrambling game from the two-time MVP.

While Mahomes isn't a dual-threat QB in the same way as his counterpart on Sunday, he's ramped up his rushing efforts in the postseason - averaging 4.7 attempts in 16 career playoff starts compared to just 3.9 per game in the regular season. We saw that on display last week when he ran it six times for 19 yards in that win over the Bills.

When the lights are brightest, Mahomes loves to create with his legs, tallying five or more rushes in five of his eight appearances in the AFC Championship or Super Bowl. He'll have plenty of chances against a Ravens defense that loves to drop extra defenders and prevent shots down the field.

This prop is dealing at -135 or worse at the rest of our best sports betting sites, so we're getting some relative value betting this at DraftKings even with non-standard vig.

Patrick Mahomes to throw an interception (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐

Mahomes hasn't thrown a postseason interception since the 2022 AFC Championship, so it's a testament to the strength of this Baltimore defense that this prop is dealing at -120 or shorter across our best sportsbooks. It's also why I'm comfortable laying the juice on that streak ending Sunday.

The Ravens have thoroughly dominated opposing QBs this season, ranking second in opponent EPA/pass and first in defense DVOA. They also tied for third in interceptions (18) with a whopping seven interceptions over their final four games - with five of them coming against the title-favorite San Francisco 49ers.

I don't expect a high-volume day for Mahomes, which is why this bet isn't one of my best of the weekend. I'm sprinkling a half-unit on it anyway because Mahomes has never faced a defense quite like this one and has been turnover-prone against elite defenses in his postseason career.

Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made Saturday at 1:45 p.m. ET.

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