NFL Week 13 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more

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03 December 2023

NFL Week 13 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.

So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds via ESPN BET.

QB interceptions

Sam Howell over 0.5 interceptions (-135 at ESPN BET)

Not too often is it worth it to pay this kind of price on an interception prop, but this is one situation where it makes sense: Howell has a higher-than-average pick rate (2.3%), his team is a heavy underdog, and crucially -- he's expected to throw a ton, with an attempts prop line of 38.5 at ESPN BET. Each of those pass attempts carries interception risk. My model shows a remarkable fair price of -182.

Gardner Minshew over 0.5 interceptions (+110)

Pass completions

C.J. Stroud over 22.5 pass completions (-105)

As the Texans have gained confidence in C.J. Stroud, their willingness to let him sling it has increased. In Weeks 1-8 the Texans had the 30th-ranked designed pass rate (and designed pass rate on early downs, too) in the NFL. But over the past four weeks those ranks have jumped to seventh and ninth, respectively. My model puts Stroud at 23.3 completions against the Broncos -- so only a small difference from the line, but I also think the model is underrating the recent reliance on Stroud.

Desmond Ridder over 16.5 completions (+110)

Pass attempts

Will Levis under 31.5 pass attempts (-125)

We rode Levis' under to a narrow victory last week (it was 28.5 then), and we're doubling down on the same direction in Week 13. He's gone under 31.5 pass attempts in three of his five starts and both of the times he went over it were losses. The Titans losing is no fait accompli this week though: They are just one-point underdogs to the Colts.

C.J. Stroud over 33.5 pass attempts (-110)

Receptions

Breece Hall under 3.5 receptions (+125)

The Falcons are all the way up to a 62% man coverage rate, second highest behind only the Cowboys. As we've written several times: Running backs earn targets and record receptions at a substantially lower rate against man coverage, and I believe that angle isn't fully baked into the market (yet). Don't expect it to work 100% of the time (as it has for us so far, four-for-four!) but I'm going to continue to somewhat blindly fade running backs against man-heavy teams.

Sacks

Andrew Van Ginkel (MIA) over 0.5 sacks (+145)

Even though Howell has been better in recent weeks at avoiding sacks, he still is averaging almost a 10% sack rate and I still love betting against him at this price. Van Ginkel has an above average 20% pass rush win rate at edge and my model prices this at +107. My only concern would be Van Ginkel's uneven playing time this season, but with Jaelan Phillips out, I would expect him to get more opportunities to rush the passer.

Travon Walker (JAX) over 0.5 sacks (+150)

We have a very limited sample of Jake Browning, but what we have seen should be enticing to opposing pass-rushers: a 13% sack rate. Plus, Walker will have the benefit of going against Bengals right tackle Jonah Williams, who ranks 55th out of 70 tackles in pass block win rate this season.

Tackles + assists

Quincy Williams (NYJ) over 7.5 tackles + assists (-105)

This is all about the opponent: The Jets are light underdogs against the Falcons, who run more on early downs more than any team outside of the 49ers. Even though Williams' tackle rates are just OK, all those extra runs will result in more tackles to go around -- and some of them will make their way to him.