NFL Week 16 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.

So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds by ESPN BET.

Pass completions

Bailey Zappe under 18.5 completions (+100)

There's no other way to say it -- Zappe's numbers this season are rough. A 27 QBR, a -4% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and a higher-than-average 19% off-target rate all suggest New England will want to limit Zappe's pass attempts. And when he does throw the ball, he's less likely to complete passes. I'm probably too low here -- projecting 14.4 completions -- but directionally I think the under makes sense.

Bryce Young over 16.5 completions (-125)

Pass attempts

Baker Mayfield over 31.5 pass attempts (-110)

The Jaguars rank first in defensive pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, meaning they induce more passing from opponents given the game situation. That should work in the over's favor, and my model forecasts Mayfield to record 33.1 attempts Sunday.

QB interceptions

Jalen Hurts over 0.5 interceptions (+150)

Yes, he's playing the Giants and that's a pretty good reason to think he won't throw a pick -- because the Eagles ought to be winning big, as the 13.5-point spread suggests. But sometimes picks just happen -- tipped passes or fluky plays or bad throws -- and Hurts has the fifth-highest interception rate (2.2%) among QBR qualifying passers this season. I make the fair price +123.

Sacks

Calais Campbell (ATL) under 0.5 sacks (-175)

This is just way too attractive of a price. Campbell is a long-time great player, but he isn't the same guy. Back in 2017, his pass rush win rate was a very strong 21%. Today, it's 10%. Plus, Gardner Minshew takes sacks at a lower-than-average rate. I make the fair price on the under -299. If I'm right, that's a ton of value.

Josh Sweat (PHI) over 0.5 sacks (-105)

Tommy DeVito has an obscene 16% sack rate. The sample is small still, yes, but he sure looks like an attractive quarterback for opposing pass-rushers to face. Enter Sweat, who has only 6.5 sacks this year but does have the third-fastest pass rush get-off (0.72 seconds to cross the line of scrimmage) among players with at least 200 pass rushes, behind only Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson. I put the over all the way at -155.

Tackles

Note that some bets are tackles + assists and others are just tackles or assists.

Jack Campbell (DET) under 5.5 tackles + assists (-125)

Campbell's playing time has been up and down, but in the past two games he has played under 60% of the Lions' defensive snaps. The Lions figure to be ahead and that should push the Vikings toward passing plays (which result in fewer tackle opportunities for linebackers). Plus, the Vikings skew toward pass plays anyway; they've been slightly above average in terms of pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, even just since Kirk Cousins has been out. My model projects just 4.5 tackles + assists for Campbell.

Receptions

De'Von Achane under 3.5 receptions (-170)

My philosophy here -- betting against running back receptions against man-coverage defenses -- has been successful in a small sample (6-2, +3.6 units). As a reminder, over the past three seasons, running backs have caught a pass on 16% of drop-backs vs. zone this season but just 9% of the time against man. The Cowboys run the most man coverage of any team in the NFL (65% of the time), so their opponent, the Dolphins, is the target to fade this week. If you're feeling bolder, under 2.5 is available at +135.

Raheem Mostert under 1.5 receptions (-130)

Results

Last week

QB interceptions: 1-0 (+1.3 units)
Pass completions: 1-1 (-0.1 units)
Pass attempts: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Receptions: 1-1 (+0.3 units)
Sacks: 6-4-1 (+2.8 units)
Tackles: 5-3 (+1.0 units)

2023 Season

QB interceptions: 16-22 (-3.0 units)
Pass completions: 7-7 (-0.5 units)
Pass attempts: 8-9 (-3.0 units)
Receptions: 6-2 (+3.6 units)
Sacks: 73-53-7 (+17.2 units)
Tackles: 61-51-1 (+8.9 units)
Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 units)
Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Overall: 175-173-8 (+12.1 units)