Panthers vs. Lions NFL Player Props, Odds

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06 October 2023

Panthers vs. Lions NFL Player Props, Odds

Carolina Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young is still searching for his first win, and the team heads into this road matchup against the Detroit Lions as the second-biggest underdog on the Week 5 NFL slate. We have you covered with our Panthers-Lions NFL player props for Week 5 based on the best NFL odds.

The Carolina Panthers are off to their first 0-4 start since 2010, and rookie QB Bryce Young joined Jimmy Clausen as the only Panthers quarterbacks ever to lose their first three career starts. Meanwhile, the Lions are in the driver’s seat in the NFC North after last Thursday’s 34-20 road win over the Green Bay Packers, and they enter this week as one of six NFC teams at 3-1 or better.

Here are our best Panthers vs. Lions NFL player props for Week 5 (NFL odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Panthers vs. Lions NFL player props: Week 5

David Montgomery Over 69.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Carolina has allowed at least 130 rushing yards in all four games this season, and if Detroit exceeds that total, the production will come from its running backs, as Jared Goff has just 12 rushing yards on the season.

The Panthers’ defensive weakness feeds exactly into the Lions’ strengths, as Detroit has dropped back to pass on 50.6% of its plays (second lowest), including a 57.3% rate through the first three quarters when games are more competitive (fifth lowest), per Sharp Football Analysis. Carolina has faced 27.5 pass attempts per game (fourth fewest) as its run defense cannot stop anyone. So, David Montgomery, who is coming off a 121-yard performance against Green Bay, should be the biggest beneficiary.

With Montgomery’s O/U as high as 73.5 at FanDuel, we are taking advantage of the lower number at DraftKings, even if it requires paying up slightly.

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Bryce Young longest completion Under 33.5 yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Panthers have reportedly been seeking a trade partner for a No. 1 wide receiver, as their offense has not been explosive yet under rookie Bryce Young. Carolina is consistently facing long yardage on second and third downs, as it is averaging 4.0 yards per play on early downs (second worst). In addition, the Panthers rank 31st in yards per passing play (4.3).

In three Bryce Young starts, the longest completions have been 22 yards (Adam Thielen vs. Minnesota), 22 yards (Jonathan Mingo vs. New Orleans), and 14 yards (Hayden Hurst and Laviska Shenault Jr. vs. Atlanta). Through Young’s first two starts, he was one of two quarterbacks (Geno Smith was the other) who was pressured on at least 33% of dropbacks in each of the first two games. In those games, he went 6-for-19 for 30 yards and took six sacks when pressured. Thus, this is a four-star play, as we expect Detroit to confuse and pressure the young quarterback relentlessly, which will limit his ability to find receivers deep downfield.

bet365 charges a slightly higher price (-115) to back the Under, which makes DraftKings our preferred shop.

Eddy Pineiro Under 5.5 kicking points (-135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Carolina has a team total O/U of 16.5 points, and the Over on its total touchdowns (1.5) is juiced to -160. Thus, Pineiro is not likely to go over this projected total by kicking field goals (his O/U of 1.5 field goals made is juiced to -195 for the Under). This math has us backing the Under on his total kicking points as a three-star play.

Carolina has the league’s 24th-ranked scoring offense. And as one of two teams on the Week 5 slate that is a double-digit underdog, we would expect head coach Frank Reich to be more aggressive when the team has scoring opportunities and eschew field goals in an attempt to keep up with Detroit’s high-scoring offense. While Pineiro has gone over this projected total in three consecutive games, Carolina lost by one score in two of those contests, and we expect a bigger margin of victory for Detroit this week.

We are getting a slightly better price on this number at bet365, as DraftKings has the Under juiced to -140.

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Panthers-Lions player props made 10/6/2023 at 6:09 a.m. ET