Penn State vs. Michigan State Prediction, Preview, and Odds
Penn State (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS, 6-2 B10) returns to action to take on Michigan State (4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 2-6 B10) from East Lansing on a cold Friday night at 7:30pmET from Ford Field. Fortunately, the cold November weather won't be relevant under the dome at Ford Field.
Last year, the Nittany Lions took this one 35-16 at home as an 18.5-point favorite.
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Change is good?
After Penn State lost to Michigan 24-15 on Nov. 11, head coach James Franklin decided to fire offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. Penn State scored 12 points in a loss to Ohio State and 15 to Michigan at home. The Nittany Lions are in third place in the Big 10 East at 6-2 because they can't defeat either of those teams.
“We’ve got to do a better job of calling a game to allow a quarterback to get into rhythm. That is critical," Franklin said after the game when asked about QB Drew Allar's struggles. "We got to find easy completions to allow a quarterback to get into a rhythm, that’s what everybody does.
Franklin, a former quarterback himself, now has an issue at quarterback. In their 27-6 win over Rutgers, Allar was injured (shoulder?) in the third quarter and was replaced by redshirt freshman Beau Pribula, who threw the ball just once, but ran eight times for 71 yards and a TD. He seemed to give the offense a jolt of energy with his ability to run. Allar is not listed on the injury report, but you have to wonder if Pribula gets the start and they just run on Michigan State or they use two quarterbacks.
Allar has completed 61% of his passes for 20,44 yards with 21 TDs and one pick. That's an incredible TD/IN ratio, but the problem with Allar is that he fails to make many plays down the field. RB Kayton Allen leads the team with 714 yards and six TDs (4.9ypc).
Defensively, Penn State is very good, ranking second in the nation with just 238.7 yards per game allowed, 161 passing yards (6th), 77.7 yards rushing yards per game (3rd) and 12.5 points per game allowed (4th). On offense, they rank just 102n in passing yards per game (195.4ypg) and 41st in rushing yards (177.9ypg).
It's been a long season, but.....
Michigan State may have found a quarterback in redshirt freshman Katin Houser. The Spartans beat Nebraska on Nov. 4 (20-17) and after an expected 38-3 defeat at Ohio State (38-3) on Nov. 11, they bounced back with a 24-21 road win over Indiana. Houser threw a 36-yard touchdown pass to tight end Maliq Carr to help the Spartans beat Indiana last week by three. After IU's Chris Freeman missed a 49-yard field goal to tie the game as time expired, MSU captured their first road game of the season under interim coach Harlon Barnett. Huser, in his sixth career start, completed 26 of 41 for 251 yards with three TDs, but also had two picks. That followed after Houser had three straight turnover-free games.
How strange has this season been for Michigan State? Houser was the only scholarship player available at quarterback against Indiana. QB Noah Kim (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for this game. Barnett has done a nice job for the Spartans, taking over for Mel Tucker on Sept. 10 after Tucker was suspended and then fired.
Houster is completing 58.6% of his passes for 1,011 yards with six TDs and four picks. RB Nathan Carter leads the Spartans with 753 yards rushing (4.2ypc) and four TDs. He is banged-up but listed as probable.
Overall, MSU is really struggling on offense, where they are averaging just 308.1 yards per game (123rd), 101 rushing yards (122nd) and 207.1 passing yards (90th). On defense, they are allowing 371.4 yards (61st), 231.5 passing yards and 139.9 rushing yards (48th).
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That's a lot of points to lay for a Penn State team stuck in third place in the Big 10. Sure, they don't want to lose here and their running game is better than Michigan State's, but their passing game is dreadful. At some point, the Spartans' defense will figure out that the Nittany Lions will be running the ball with Pribula and when you look at their defense, they've kept them in most games despite their offensive problems, which are mainly due to injuries. Take the points at home in the dome.
Prediction: MIchigan State +21
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This will be another Big 10 special where each team struggles to score. A new offensive coordinator for Penn State means that they may play a new quarterback and focus on the run. That got them 27 points last week at home. With a week of film to prepare for a dual-threat quarterback, the Spartans will be read. Now, after saying that and picking Michigan State to cover, I'm aware that they are mediocre on offense and they are facing one of the best defenses in the nation. Sparty has also gone under three of their last four games.
Prediction: Under 42.5
Ben has been a sports writer for over 35 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for nearly 30 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13! Ben has had great success in handicapping college football, the NFL, college basketball, the NBA and MLB for 27+ years. His Twitter handle is @BenHayesWAW
