Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs: MNF Week 11 Odds, Lines, Picks & Best Bets

Moneyline

The moneyline odds for this game slightly favor Kansas City at home.

Arrowhead is one of the toughest environments for road teams in professional sports. Patrick Mahomes is close to unbeatable at the stadium, going 35-8 at home in his career (including 4-1 this year).

Philadelphia has been just as impressive on the road, however, going 4-1 away from home. Jalen Hurts is 17-10 on the road in his career, negating some of the Chiefs’ home-field advantage.

Both teams are coming off of bye weeks and should be well-rested for this game. 

Kansas City should have a significant edge thanks to Andy Reid, who is 21-3 after a bye week in his career. Nick Sirianni is no slouch, though, at a perfect 2-0. 

The stats don’t show an obvious advantage, either.

The Eagles have the better offense (third in scoring), but the Chiefs have the superior defense (second-fewest points allowed). 

Kansas City has a slightly better point differential at +65 to +57, but the margin there is slight.

This game is truly a toss-up, but there are enough edges pointing in the Chiefs’ favor (home-field advantage, coaching) to make them the preferred play on the moneyline.

Point Spread

Kansas City is slightly favored on the spread at three points, the standard advantage given to home teams in the NFL.

If the Chiefs win this game, there’s a good chance it will come by at least a field goal. All seven of their wins have come by at least three points, and they are 6-3 against the spread (ATS). 

Philadelphia is 5-2-2 against the spread, which is impressive given they’ve closed as the favorite in every contest. This is the first time the Eagles are underdogs, which makes their spread even more viable.

Similar to the Super Bowl, this game should be incredibly close and go down to the wire. 

Philadelphia is arguably the better team this year and could easily win this game outright. The Eagles shouldn’t lose by more than a field goal, so take the points with them.

Over/Under

The Over/Under here is 45.5 points, which looks low for a matchup with so much offensive star power. 

Philadelphia’s offense has been hot after a slow start, scoring at least 28 points in three straight games. With Hurts sparking their prolific offense, the Eagles are 5-4 against the Over this year.

The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t proved quite as potent, averaging 23.1 points per game. That lack of top-shelf production combined with their stingy defense explains why Kansas City is 7-2 to the Under.

The Chiefs still have a relatively high offensive floor thanks to Mahomes. To date, Kansas City has scored at least 20 points in six of nine games this year.

They shouldn’t have too much trouble putting up points against a Philadelphia defense that surrenders 21.7 points per game (18th in NFL).

These two teams combined for 73 points the last time they met in one of the highest-scoring Super Bowls ever played. Take the Over here.

Player Prop

With so many stars on both sidelines, there are plenty of good player props to choose from this week. One that jumps out is Hurts over 236.5 passing yards (-115 odds).

This number looks too low for Hurts, who is having the best passing season of his career. 

Last year’s MVP runner-up has a 68.9% completion rate and is averaging 260.8 passing yards per game – both personal bests.

Hurts has thrown the ball even better lately after a slow start. 

He was held below 200 passing yards in each of the first two games of the season, but he’s thrown for at least 277 passing yards in six of his last seven games. 

Over that span, he’s averaging 283.4 yards per game.

Kansas City’s secondary has played terrific (fifth-fewest passing yards allowed), but it’s going to have its hands full trying to cover A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Hurts will need to throw a lot to keep up with Mahomes, especially after torching the Chiefs for 304 passing yards in the Super Bowl.

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