The future of the Identity Line, the possibility of a Brock Nelson trade, and more: Islanders mailbag Part 1
Welcome to August, the only month of the year in which there really isn’t anything on the NHL schedule. Free agency is well behind us, and the start of training camp is still a month and a half away.
But you have questions, and we (hopefully) have some sensible answers. Let’s get to Part 1 of our Islanders mailbag, with Part 2 set for later this week.
Can you use some of this space to tell the fan base at large to relax? They made the playoffs largely on the back of Ilya Sorokin’s elite play — and that will continue. A full season of Bo Horvat–Mathew Barzal should see the power play improve. And, ideally, there is not another long-term injury to Adam Pelech. — Doug M.
I’ve tried doing this a bit on Twitter, or whatever we’re calling it now, so yes, Doug, I do tend to agree. To a point.
The single most important position on the ice is the goaltender, and the Islanders have the guy that is the preseason odds-on favorite to win the Vezina Trophy. And even if you don’t like the length of No. 2 Semyon Varlamov’s recent four-year contract extension, it was important for the Islanders to keep him around to lessen Sorokin’s load. That alone should keep the Islanders in the mix for a playoff spot throughout the duration of the season, even in a league that continues to trend toward offense.
And offensively, it’s important to remember that in the regular season, Horvat and Barzal only played six games together before the latter’s lower-body injury in mid-February cost him the rest of the regular season. In theory, those two spending time in training camp building chemistry should help the five-on-five offense and the power play.
As for the defense, I do have some concerns there. I get Lou Lamoriello defending Noah Dobson’s season in his delayed post-season presser, but Dobson is going to have to be more aggressive and more responsible in the defensive zone next season. Alexander Romanov will have to be more consistent. I thought it made more sense for the team to pursue an offensive, puck-moving defenseman in the offseason to replace Scott Mayfield, but management felt otherwise, giving Mayfield that seven-year extension.
Every team, and every roster, has some flaws. The Islanders are no different. Are they a Stanley Cup contender as currently constructed? No, not quite, in my opinion. But if you asked me right now if I think this is a playoff team, my answer is yes, and there are bound to be more changes between now and the 2024 trade deadline. Sorokin, now firmly established as one of the best goalies in the league, is the primary reason why I have that confidence.
Do you think Samuel Bolduc or Sebastian Aho has the edge for the sixth defenseman spot? — John V.
Aho is probably penciled in right now after he played most of last season there, but I would guess that the organization would love to see the 22-year-old Bolduc come to camp and leapfrog him for that job, as he has the higher upside. That Bolduc signed a two-year, one-way contract suggests that the Islanders expect the 2019 second-round pick to make an impact at the NHL level sooner than later.
Bolduc’s 6-foot-4-inch size is his biggest advantage over Aho, who’s listed at 5-foot-10 (which might even be a bit generous). Like Aho, Bolduc has the ability to play on the power play, which he did in Bridgeport. What Bolduc will have to get better at, like so many young defensemen, is taking care of the puck in the defensive end — something he struggled with in his two playoff appearances in particular, including Game 2 of the first-round series with the Hurricanes when he was benched just four minutes into the second period after a penalty. He’ll undoubtedly get in at least a handful of NHL games next season, whether it be at the start of the season or a little later.
At what point in the season do we finally see the end of (the Identity Line) and the Isles giving fourth-line opportunities to others? — Keith L.
What I think we can safely say is that this will be the final season of the Identity Line, with both Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin set to be unrestricted free agents next summer.
But what about this coming season? Obviously, there’s a very good chance that the line is together on opening night, considering that they played all six games of the first-round series against Carolina together. And, at times, they were effective — particularly in Game 3, the first-ever playoff game at UBS Arena, a 5-1 Islanders win in which Cizikas and Martin had goals.
It’s important to keep in mind that Cizikas and Clutterbuck are both still important parts of the penalty kill, so I have a hard time envisioning them coming out — Cizikas’ 1:53 of shorthanded time on ice per game was second among Islanders’ forwards, while Clutterbuck’s 1:41 was fourth. Every coach in the league would prefer that it be the depth guys that eat up those minutes, and the Islanders — ninth in the NHL in penalty-killing percentage last season — have that.
If anyone has a target on his back going into camp it’s Martin, but I remember thinking the same thing last season, and he ended up having his best offensive season in seven years with seven goals and 19 points, and missed just one game. Yes, he has to avoid some of the penalties that cost the Islanders games, like the bad one he took in Game 4 against the Hurricanes, but it seems that the team still values what he brings in terms of intimidation and physicality.
One of my favorite quotes last season came from Stars coach Pete DeBoer on Nov. 19 in Dallas, when he refused to divulge what one of his defensemen was dealing with as a game-time decision. “When Matt Martin’s running you, and you’ve got something wrong with you, that bothers (the player),” DeBoer said with a chuckle, explaining why he didn’t want to get into details about that player’s minor injury.
In other words, opponents still take notice when that line is on the ice. That still means something, even if they’re getting a bit long in the tooth as a trio.
If the Isles trade Brock Nelson, they are probably selling high. Could they get a young scoring winger in return? If not, what return might they get? — Greg S.
Yes, they’d be selling high, and they’d also be signaling that they’re going into a rebuild because in no logical world would the Islanders trade the man who’s arguably been their top player (other than Sorokin) for the past two seasons and who is coming off of the best season of his career in 2022-23.
Teams across the NHL would be lining up for Nelson if the Islanders made him available, particularly with the dearth of high-end centers that were available in free agency this summer. But it makes zero sense for the team to move him at this point, particularly in that he’s a bargain at $6 million annually for the next two seasons.
I’m surprised how often I see speculation that the team might be willing to, or should, move Nelson. Utter nonsense.
Could you see the Isles bringing in a veteran goalie to be in Bridgeport? — Brian G.
They certainly should. Jakub Skarek, who was re-signed to a two-year, two-way contract earlier this summer, has put up some brutal numbers in each of the last two seasons: a 3.30 GAA and .896 SP in 37 games in 2021-22, and a 3.37 GAA and .892 SP in 38 games last season. I’m not going to pretend I watched a ton of Bridgeport games over the last few years, but with numbers that bad, it’s a little surprising the Islanders kept him around.
The goalies still without a home include Jaroslav Halak, Brian Elliott, Martin Jones, Michael Hutchinson, Aaron Dell and Alex Stalock.
I have a hard time seeing an older guy like Halak or Elliott accepting an AHL assignment, but maybe one of those others would be open to it. Stalock, in particular, I think would be a good fit, provided he wants to keep playing. He’s a high-character guy and a great teammate and can fill in at the NHL level if necessary.
What is Robin Salo’s situation and how has he fallen so far? In hindsight, his getting into games early last season reads like a failed showcase for a trade. — Navin V.
Salo made the opening night lineup last season based on merit. That’s certainly not the time of year for any sort of trade showcase. But, you’re right, he squandered that opportunity to the point that I would be really surprised if he made the opening night roster. As a left-shot defenseman, he’s behind Aho, Bolduc, and maybe even Dennis Cholowski at this point. He’s a good candidate to get moved in the near future, perhaps for another team’s prospect that could also use a change in scenery. It does feel like his time here is just about up, as he’s a pending RFA next summer.
