UFC 295: Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini Betting Prediction

The annual Madison Square Garden event is finally here and set for this weekend on the UFC fight schedule. One of the more interesting matchups on the PPV portion of the event will be this featherweight matchup between exciting budding contenders Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini.

Lopes vs. SabatiniPicks

UFC 295 Pick: Lopes will get his hand raised

Read more for a closer look at this bout and for the official Lopes vs Sabatini prediction ahead of placing your bets on this card this weekend.

Lopes vs. Sabatini Information

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini

Location of the game: Madison Square Garden. New York City, NY.

Date and Time: Saturday, November 11. 9:00 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV

Last Fight Record

• Lopes is coming off an impressive first-round submission over Gavin Tucker in only his second UFC appearance in August.
• Sabatini is coming off a second-round submission over Lucas Almeida in June.

Lopes vs. Sabatini Betting Analysis

Diego Lopes

Lopes is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 22-6 with 8 TKO/KO wins and an impressive 12 submissions under his belt at only the age of 28. He made a lot of noise in the MMA community after stepping up on short notice in his UFC debut against one of the most elite featherweights in the world, Movsar Evloev. He fought Evloev to a close decision and earned the respect of just about everybody in the sport.

In the octagon, Lopes averages only 2.12 significant strikes landed and 4.92 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Along with only a 33% takedown defense and zero takedowns of his own. He still has 5.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes. This means he is comfortable off of his back and is very dangerous in the submission game.

Pat Sabatini

Sabatini is an American mixed martial artist with a professional record of 18-4 with 2 TKO/KOs and 11 submissions. He’s the former Cage Fury featherweight champion with an impressive 3 title defenses in a tough regional promotion before heading to the UFC. He’s a very high-level submission grappler. Putting his skills to the test at the Fury Pro Grappling 6 event last December. Beating UFC veteran Alex Caceres via rear naked choke.

The BJJ black belt is a pure grappler in the UFC. He only averages just over 1.00 significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute in the octagon. On top of that, Sabatini averages 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 45% rate, while averaging 1.9 submissions.

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini Betting Preview

The Lopes vs Sabatini prediction is very difficult to make this week. We have to break down this fight by previewing betting lines, studying the film on them both, and learning as much as possible about their styles.

Since it’s early in the week, there are not too many UFC bets being made for the weekend because there aren’t many betting lines released yet. The moneyline for this bout has Sabatini as the slight -125 betting favorite over the +105 Lopes. Don’t be surprised if this line closes at around EVEN by the time UFC fight night arrives.

Battle of Elite Grapplers

From studying the tape, both of these guys are crazy good on the ground. Sabatini relies heavily on his grappling and always looks to take opponents into his guard. And we just haven’t seen enough of Lopes to tell how good his striking is.

They both love looking for slick submission off of their back. Heel hooks and leg locks are second nature to both guys. It would be interesting to see if they get into any situations where they are working on each other’s legs off their back.

Sometimes when two elite grapplers face off, the fight ends up being a stand-up war. They both are tough, durable dudes who will always come to fight and this has the chance to be a fight-of-the-night contender.

Lopes vs. Sabatini Betting Prediction

After as much consideration as possible this early on in fight week, the Lopes vs Sabatini prediction is that Lopes will get his hand raised. This kid at underdog odds is almost too good to ever pass right now while he’s fighting guys outside of the top-10 rankings.

UFC predictions are so tough to make because the sport is so unpredictable, so make sure you look at this fight as a 50/50 coin flip, because it really is. The size and aggressiveness of Lopes is going to be too much for Sabatini to handle.

• UFC 295 Pick: Lopes will get his hand raised

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