UFC Fight Night 222: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes odds, picks and predictions

In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes meet at UFC Fight Night 222 — also known as UFC Vegas 71 — at UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 222: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4:30 p.m. ET, while the main card can be viewed on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Pavlovich takes the walk to the octagon with 5 consecutive KO/TKO wins under his belt after getting dropped by Alistair Overeem in his UFC debut in Nov. 2018. Not only has the Russian fighter won his past 5 bouts via KO/TKO, but each has been finished in Round 1.

Blaydes made quick work of Tom Aspinall in his most recent showing in July 2022 in the main event, needing just 15 seconds before dispatching the Briton via knockout. That came on the heels of a 2nd-Round KO/TKO against Chris Daukaus in March 2022.

“Razor” has won 7 of his past 8 bouts, with stoppages in 7 of the previous 10 fights dating back to Feb. 2018. The 32-year-old gives up 4 inches in reach to Pavlovich. Blaydes has posted a 61.55% significant strike accuracy percentage, and he has a spectacular 6.05 takedown average. He’ll likely be trying to get this fight to the mat quickly.

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UFC Fight Night 222: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:37 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 222: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes picks and predictions

Records: Pavlovich (17-1-0) | Blaydes (17-3-0)

BLAYDES (-165) is a strong play on the 2-way line, as Pavlovich faces a serious step up in competition.

Blaydes is the more polished fighter and can win it in a number of ways. He is not just known for his punching power, but also for his wrestling ability. If he gets Pavlovich down, and begins the ground and pound, it isn’t going to end well for the Russian underdog.

Blaydes is fighting for a title shot, and he just might get one with a resounding victory here.

Playing OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+110) is worth a look. Yes, Pavlovich hasn’t been extended past the 1st Round in any of his 6 fights at the UFC level, but Blaydes represents his biggest challenge yet.

I think this one takes a little longer than the middle of the 2nd Round. These 2 fighters will use the 1st Round to feel each other out. They’re not going to wear themselves out by emptying the tank with a ton of punches. We might see Blaydes go to the mat in Round 1, trying to gain top position and wow the judges with his wrestling ability. However, I think we see Round 2 — and perhaps even Round 3 — before Blaydes comes away with a win either by submission or via KO/TKO.