UFC Fight Night 236: Hermansson vs. Pyfer odds, picks and predictions

In a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event, Jack Hermansson and Joe Pyfer meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 236 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 94 and UFC Vegas 86 — at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 236: Hermansson vs. Pyfer odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Hermansson (23-8-0) | Pyfer (12-2-0)

Hermansson is looking to rebound after a 2nd-round KO/TKO loss to Roman Dolidze last time out in Dec. 2022. The Joker suffered an injury during training last year, pushing his return to the octagon back a bit. He has lost 4 of his past 7 fights while going the distance in 4 of his previous 5.

Pyfer has burst onto the UFC scene with 3 straight victories since making his company debut in Sept. 2022 against Alen Amedovski. He has 3 finishes inside the distance in 3 fights, including a 1st-round KO/TKO of veteran Gerald Meerschaert at UFC 287.

The 35-year-old Hermansson holds a slight 2-inch reach advantage over Pyfer and has a 5.13-to-3.64 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. He is more accurate with those strikes, too, landing 50.8% of those punches to just 45.67% for Pyfer.

Pyfer is much better on the ground, posting a 2.97 takedown average, 83.33% takedown accuracy percentage and 1.78 submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 236: Hermansson vs. Pyfer odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 236: Hermansson vs. Pyfer picks and predictions

Pyfer (-250) has been a force since making his UFC debut, and he has won 5 straight pro bouts dating back to a 1st-round KO/TKO setback in Dana White’s Contender Series in Aug. 2020.

However, you can’t bet Pyfer straight up, risking 2½ times your potential return. Instead, get a little more specific. Pyfer is a punching machine, and he is dangerous on the canvas. If he gets Hermansson (+200) into a wrestling match, it won’t end well for the challenger.

Back PYFER BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-175) on the 5-way line if you’re a little more on the conservative side. If you are a little more adventurous, PYFER BY SUBMISSION (+350) on the 7-way line is worth a roll of the dice.

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-165) is worth a look in this final bout of the evening.

Pyfer hasn’t gone the distance since Aug. 2018 against Derek Wilson at CES 52, his 2nd pro bout. And he has gone past 1½ rounds just once in the past 12 fights dating back to that unanimous-decision win in 2018 against Wilson.

While Hermansson has ended up going the distance in 4 of the past 5 bouts, he is a little long in the tooth, and he is coming back from a lengthy layoff. It remains to be seen how his cardio and conditioning will be.