UFC 295: Pavlovich vs Aspinall Betting Analysis and Prediction

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10 November 2023

UFC 295: Pavlovich vs Aspinall Betting Analysis and Prediction

The MSG event is finally set for this weekend on the UFC schedule and it is full of amazing matchups and storylines, of course. The most interesting storyline of them all might be this replacement fight for Jones vs. Miocic. The scheduled backup fighter, Sergei Pavlovich, will meet top contender Tom Apsinall on 2-weeks notice for the interim heavyweight title.

Continue reading as we take a closer look at this matchup and figure out the best Pavlovich vs Aspinall prediction ahead of placing your bets on this weekend’s card.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall Information

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall

Location of the fight: Madison Square Garden. New York City, NY.

Date and Time: Saturday, November 11. 9:00 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV

Last Fight Record

Pavlovich is coming off a first-round KO win over Curtis Blaydes in April.
Aspinall is coming off a first-round KO win over Marcin Tybura in July.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall Betting Analysis

Sergei Pavlovich

Pavlovich is a Russian mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 18-1 with 15 KOs under his belt at the age of 31. He has championships in Russian Combat Kung Fu and the regional organization of Fight Nights Global. He is the No.2 ranked contender in the heavyweight division right now and is riding a 6-fight first-round KO streak going into this event.

Pavlovich is listed as a massive 6’3” with an 84” reach and weighing in at around the 260lb mark in most of his fights. Fighting out of the southpaw stance, he averages a ridiculous 8.72 significant strikes landed and 4.33 significant strikes absorbed per minute in the octagon. He also holds a modest 75” takedown defense in the UFC.

Tom Aspinall

Aspinall is a British mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 13-3 with 10 KOs and 3 submissions at the age of 30. His 100% finish rate consists of 12 finishes in the first round out of his 13 wins. The lifelong martial artist has taken his skills and made them even more dangerous with his size.

Aspinall is a 6’5” orthodox boxer with elite BJJ abilities. He also has a 78” reach and weighs in at around 256lbs. In the UFC, he has an incredible striking efficiency–averaging 7.65 significant strikes landed and 2.90 absorbed in a minute while in the octagon. On top of that, Aspinall adds a dominant 3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 100% clip, along with a 100% takedown defense. Basically, this kid has been untouchable in the UFC outside of his injury.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall Betting Preview

To arrive at the proper Pavlovich vs Aspinall prediction, we need to take a look at the betting lines and watch the tape on both guys to determine how their styles might clash in the octagon on Saturday night.

According to the UFC odds, Aspinall is actually coming in as the slight betting favorite with -115 odds over the -104 Pavlovich. This fight might close at EVEN odds, so it’s literally a coin flip on paper.

The odds are so close that we don’t even need to worry about prop bets or methods of victory. One thing that can pretty much be guaranteed: this fight won’t go the distance.

Power vs. Precision

After watching the tape on both guys, the skills of Aspinall stick out the most. The speed of his hands, his movement around the octagon. And even the brief moments of his wrestling and BJJ game are incredible. The guy is as special of a talent as we have seen in the UFC yet.

Pavlovich’s biggest upside is his physicality and his devastating power. He has Ngannou-type power with an even cleaner punching technique in the UFC. Ngannou might have something to say about that now after a boxing training camp, though.

The skills have to give an edge to Aspinall, but the great equalizer is in Pavlovich’s possession. Aspinall has the power to put out anybody in the world as well, but Pavlovich is different.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall Betting Prediction

This fight is just another example of why UFC picks are so tough to make. Heavyweight MMA is basically an entirely different sport on its own with the prospect of just one clean punch ending the fight at any given moment.

With that being said, the official Pavlovich vs Aspinall prediction is that Aspinall will get his hand raised after finishing Pavlovich in the early rounds. He is going to be able to hurt Pavlovich on the feet. And then take the fight to the ground and finish it.