UFC Fight Night 232: Allen vs. Craig odds, picks and predictions

In a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event, Brendan Allen and Paul Craig meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 232 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 90 and UFC Vegas 82 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s around the UFC Fight Night 232: Allen vs. Craig odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 2 p.m. ET, while the main card begins on ESPN+ at 5 p.m. ET.

Records: Allen (22-5-0) | Craig (17-6-1)

Allen has picked up 3 consecutive submission victories, and 5 straight wins overall, since his last setback Dec. 4, 2021, against Chris Curtis by KO/TKO in a fight night. Overall, he has managed a 10-2 mark since arriving at the UFC, including 6 submission wins and a KO/TKO.

Craig dropped Andre Muniz last time out in late July with a 2nd-round KO/TKO, halting a 2-bout losing skid. He is 5-2-1 in the past 8 outings, with 5 of those fights ending in the 1st round. Since arriving at the UFC level, Craig has had just 1 fight go the distance, a unanimous-decision setback to Volkan Oezdemir July 22. He has had 7 UFC fights end via submission (6-1) with 7 bouts ending by way of KO/TKO (3-4).

The 27-year-old Allen holds a 3.96-to-2.57 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the 35-year-old Craig. In addition, he is slightly more accurate at 59.43% to 58.83%, while Craig holds a 1.91-to-1.22 takedown average.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 232: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:27 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 232: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig picks and predictions

Allen (-440) will set you back nearly 4½ times your potential return if you were to play the heavy favorite on the 2-way line.

Avoid playing the favorite straight up, and get a little more specific instead. He has been very impressive over his career on the mat, and ALLEN BY SUBMISSION (+230) is a tremendous value for the opportunity to multiply your initial wager by 2 times. Craig’s best bet to win this fight is on the canvas, too, and he could easily turn the tide if the fight goes horizontal.

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-106) is a decent play. While Craig has ended up going the distance just once in 16 fights at the UFC level, he has been past the midway point of Round 2 twice in the past 3 outings.

For Allen, he has been past the midway point of Round 2 twice in the past 4 outings. It’s worth a roll of the dice.